Pinnacle Activity Ticker
Vol. 163 - A Quick Timing Update With One Of The Best In The Game - Mark Leibovit
This week we managed to catch up with Mark Leibovit, a Pinnacle Digest affiliate and a leading authority for market timing. Mark Leibovit, CIMA, is Chief Market Strategist for VRTrader.Com. His technical expertise is in overall market timing and stock selection based upon his proprietary VOLUME REVERSAL (tm) methodology and Annual Forecast Model.
Mark was awarded, by TIMER DIGEST, the #1 Intermediate Market Timer for the ten year period of December 31, 1997 to December 29, 2007. He was also previously ranked the #3 Gold Timer in the U.S. by that same publication. Simply put, Mark Leibovit is one of the best in the world at what he does - timing the market.
In our last interview with Mark in August, he made some bold predictions, which, not to our surprise, proved to be bang on. He called for the market to continue to rally higher despite top economists and forecasters predicting a sharp correction.
Excerpt from our interview with Mark Leibovit on August 4, 2009:
"PD: With the DOW above 9,000 and the S&P above 980, do you feel they have gone too high too fast?
Mark: Perhaps, but the TREND is up. I am on a 'Buy' signal. The Dow Industrials could easily see 10,300 and even perhaps 11,300. Time cycles currently suggest that the equity markets could zig-zag higher into the summer of 2010. If I'm correct, we can revisit that scenario at that time."
Needless to say Mark was correct and we are revisiting the topic with him in this week's Volume.
A Quick Timing Update With Mark Leibovit
PD: In our last interview with you in August, the Dow had just touched 9,000 and you told our readers it could easily see 10,300. Sure enough, it has cracked that target quite easily. With the Dow approaching 11,000, what is your new target?
Mark: 11,300-11,500 and possibly 12,000+. It depends on volume. I know it sounds crazy, but I could even envision a scenario where we get back to 14,000 as cash which has not been in the market finally throws in the towel and buys!
PD: Gold has long been the flight to safety for investors, but over the last several months it has been rallying alongside the market. Is this in direct correlation to a weakening US dollar in your opinion, or is there more to this story?
Mark: Not sure when the inverse relationship will be broken, but in the meantime a correction in the Dollar could drive Gold into new highs albeit temporarily. Cyclically, that could happen this summer.
PD: We know you are bullish on gold long term, but where is it headed over the short term?
Mark: I think we can see a high in Gold this summer of uncertain amplitude (hopefully into new highs) followed a year-end correction.
PD: You've made comments in the past that we could see $3,000 an ounce gold. Being one of the best market timers in the business, we have to ask you, when do you think prices like that will be a reality?
Mark: We're in a 20 year up cycle, as you may have heard from me and others. We exceed the $3,000 target anytime in that period as well. I cannot set a date unfortunately.
PD: Aside from gold and precious metals, what investments are you currently bullish on?
Mark: My current thinking is that most equity markets will suffer a sharp decline beginning mid-2011 at the latest and you are best in Gold, cash or short via inverse ETFs if you trust the fact that exchanges will remain open. I agree with others that we're going back to basics and owning agricultural land just so that we can eat may be a solid alternative.
PD: In respect to the overall market, do you consider yourself to be a short-term bull or bear?
Mark: Short-term bull into late summer, then a bear into year-end. May be a bull again after year-end.
PD: Of all the major fiat currencies, which one are you most bullish on?
Mark: Canadian Dollar and Australian Dollar
PD: Between the Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq and the TSX, which index do you believe will provide the greatest upside for the remainder of 2010?
Mark: All will move together in my opinion unti late summer at the latest.
Mark's note to our readers:We've been in a deflationary period for the past couple of years and yet markets recently have recovered due to government intervention. Gold shares can do well in either environment as we saw with Homestake Mining in the 1930s.
You may have recognized Mark Leibovit as one of the ten "Elves" on Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street Week television program where he served as a weekly consultant for 7 years through 1996. He also appears as a regular Market Monitor guest with Paul Kangas on PBS' The Nightly Business Report. He is a frequent guest on several other radio and television financial programs around the U.S. and has appeared on both CNBC and CNN, Bloomberg and CBS in Chicago.
Mark Leibovit's Annual Forecast Model has gained increasing notoriety on Wall Street as a predictor of future market movement. Released each year in early February, it has accurately pinpointed market highs and lows. It's claim to fame began back in 1987 when it predicted the ominous stock market crash nine months in advance. It also forecast the 2000 bear market and in February of 2007 he was quoted by Christopher Farrell "I think 2007 will be an OK year with a lot of volatility, and on balance, the market will be up until fall. I'm not too happy with the market after fall and going into 2008. Be careful."
Not surprisingly, Mark predicted, almost to the exact month, when the market would retreat into this long recession.
We strongly encourage you to visit Mark Leibovit's site VRtrader.com. And for all you Gold Bugs out there, you'll definitely want to visit his site dedicated to predicting the movements of the yellow metal, VRgoldletter.com.
Visit Mark's VRtrader.com Channel for more of his insight and future predictions
All the best with your investments,