VOL. 96 - IS THE BEAR BEGINNING TO HIBERNATE?
December 01, 2008
Dear member,
We don't think the bear has gone to sleep, but last week's numbers suggest he might be entertaining the idea of at least a brief nap.
The TSX raced to its best week in over 30 years, closing the week with a 5.9% rise on Friday. The Canadian markets have put together a six day rally of 13.7% and no one seems to have noticed. The overwhelming prospects of lower interest rates, coupled by a potential rise in commodity prices is leading the confidence.
Financial shares and gold shares were at the core of the last week's rise. Gold is up over 8% in that time and sitting firmly above $800 an ounce at $816.20. With oil trading in the $55 per barrel range, there is a general consensus that it has only one direction to go.
The US markets enjoyed their own run up this past week. Many analysts are predicting we will not see new bottoms and investors looking for bargains led the rush of buying.
The S&P 500 had its best week since 1974 and has risen a ridiculous 20.1% from November 21st! Only in bear markets does this type of insane volatility occur.
After the market's recent rise and the inescapable negative news approaching, is there any reason for optimism? Let's be realistic; the markets could very well plummet this week as short term profit taking is probable. Both Canadian and American stocks had their best week in over 30 years. There is very little doubt in our minds that we will see a short term correction. There is still a very toxic sentiment associated with everything involving the financial sector. Third quarter earnings for companies on the S&P 500 are expected to
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Re: VOL. 96 - IS THE BEAR BEGINNING TO HIBERNATE?
What a fiasco today. So many dumb CNBC analysts were calling the bottom after we had the rally last week. Now they are saying it was a 50 yard fake out. Never listen to those nuts.
Re: VOL. 96 - IS THE BEAR BEGINNING TO HIBERNATE?
yyou are correct re those premiums
Re: VOL. 96 - IS THE BEAR BEGINNING TO HIBERNATE?
I was able to buy my once-in-a decade gold buy for a mere 10% premium over 4 days the week b/4 last but I am an established customer...I have heard of premiums as high as 30-40 %!! Is that right? If it is, then someone is making a killing!! I would not buy at those premiums period!!
Re: VOL. 96 - IS THE BEAR BEGINNING TO HIBERNATE?
Gold has been shorted down on paper so the fools who brought on this mess can cover there behinds, because Charmin just doesnt clean it up anymore. Its all planned, the big boys are still reaping in the harvest. Try buying physical gold, see the premiums that you will pay
Re: VOL. 96 - IS THE BEAR BEGINNING TO HIBERNATE?
There is a word floating around people either aren't hearing or...at their peril...are ignoring!! That word is DEFLATION!! And the longer you study the word and its meaning the quicker one begins to understand that everything is going to eventually be devalued!! Exactly by whom or how is still the discussion...so I am content to wait and see period!!!...with the exception of some very short term plays!!...And if somehow you think Gold will escape the new deflationary pressures just because it always has...then think again!! The financial system is being broken down piece by piece and will emerge a completely different animal with a completely new set of expectations and rules!!! Just look at all the major indices today, and the precious metals sector in particular, then tell me that you know Gold will survive this new reordering of the World Markets!!!
This is wealth destruction on a scale not seen...period!!!
Re: VOL. 96 - IS THE BEAR BEGINNING TO HIBERNATE?
I think the Bear is wide awake and that is why we should be buying Gold. The US is printing money like it is going out of style and that will only help the price of gold.
Re: VOL. 96 - IS THE BEAR BEGINNING TO HIBERNATE?
I surely hate to crap on anyone's parade but Gold is down today by $45....Manufacturing indices are down and the market is again showing signs of a major sell off!! And the world is again rocked by Terrorists in a part of the World that we have seen begin to show signs of promise!! And China...a great silent ,oft-forgotten MAJOR player in this world economy...is showing signs of a major downturn which will have ripple...no!! tidal wave...effects on everyone!! Is the bear beginning to hibernate? I think not!! But he is definitely making his space bigger in which to prowl!!!
Re: VOL. 96 - IS THE BEAR BEGINNING TO HIBERNATE?
I guess we are witnessing the correction you guys mentioned today. These drops or one day market crashes are getting old.. When will this volatility end??