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Quebec Election Results Could Spell Bad News For Mining
They may just kill the goose that laid the golden egg. If the polls are correct and not just used for dogs to pee on, We could be in for a sharp increase in royalties and companies fleeing to the exits. Of course it may all just be a scheme to win voter support and never come to fruition. When it comes to politics, Quebec is a different animal. Crossing a Quebec politician's palm with silver and 360 degrees turns are the norm and not the exception. www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20120823AL_fccq.html
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Community Talk
Re: Quebec Election Results Could Spell Bad News F ...
Appreciate the thoughtful input by Aaron, I think he analyzed the situation very well, I am not overly concerned long term, even though I agree with southpen that the Nemaska project is critically important and I am looking forward to incresing gains on this stock.
thinker70
Re: Quebec Election Results Could Spell Bad News F ...
That helps greatly,Aaron.
My concern is that Nemaska Lithium ,who in my opinion ,if economic conditions turn very positive could be a 10 bagger. Having a high grade spodemene resource in huge tonnage with possibilities of a lot more just makes them about equal to other Canadian rivals.
The real issue is the Lithium processing plant ,already approved locally and what looked like Provincial support. This would be new patented technology mined and processed in Quebec ,a huge positive for the Province. A processing plant that will make both Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide at less costs than anywhere else ,including all those pesky Australians,who are trying to control the International Lithium market,with their Argentine sidekicks. Quebec needs this.
Disturbing resource development is bad enough but jeopardizing Canadian-Quebec technological breakthroughs would be economic suicide, "not to mention I'll be angry. "
Thanks for the political summary.
Re: Quebec Election Results Could Spell Bad News F ...
Southpen,
With a separatist party leading the politics of Quebec, and given that the province is running at a 52% debt to GDP ratio (grossly high), I would say miners need to proceed with caution. There is no doubt in my mind that taxes in that province will be raised in the near future. What sort of taxes are raised is the question. In respect to the mining royalties issue, if I was a Quebec miner, it is something I would be paying attention to, but not losing any sleep over. Ms. Marois has a minority and is extremely vulnerable. The Liberals only lost to her party by 4 seats, and although I am not a supporter of the Liberal party, they know our economy (resource based) and I can’t see them supporting the royalty possibility for miners. So, Marois’ only path to enacting some sort of royalty program for the miners in Quebec is to get the support of the party CAQ. CAQ is led by Francois Legault. Legault is a finance guy who originally was elected as a member of the PQ - which is Marois party. Now that may concern you, but his focus appears to be squarely on the economy and by all accounts, he has no interest in separating from Canada. He left the PQ party many years ago because he believed they were too focused on sovereignty and not the economy. The Liberals and PQ will bash heads non-stop, so the balance of power will rest in Legault’s hands. He is a sharp guy and more importantly, a business man. He founded a prominent airline in Canada in the 80’s and is well aware of the vital role miners play in Quebec’s economy. Legault stated after the election that "She will have to co-operate with the Liberal Party or with us," Legault said. "We want to see some changes in Quebec and the budget is an important moment to choose priorities."
By all accounts Legault wants to eliminate wasteful spending, corruption and get the province’s economy back on track. I could see another election in Quebec within 12 months.
I hope that helps a little southpen.
Re: Quebec Election Results Could Spell Bad News F ...
The Que. election results were not unexpected given the long standing "corruption" charges regarding the awarding of contracts in the construction industry and the issue of rising tuition costs. We can expect many more "ISSUES" to arise around the world as the system breaks down and people lose jobs and even hunger begins to strike as prices escalate.
The ability of a minority government to enact really serious legislation affecting the mining industry given its strong lobby and contribution to government coffers dictates that sanity will prevail. I do not expect any serious impairment of the ability to develop Que. natural resources, at worst it may just go from one of the BEST jurisdictions for mining to an also ran on par with many others.
thinker70
Re: Quebec Election Results Could Spell Bad News F ...
Thanks Frank,but does that mean you think the miners are OK ? If the PQ needs to raise money ,where else to get it ? I have not noticed any bad things happening to Quebec miners/explorers,so I'm hoping they find better things to do. If Quebec seperated,why not tell them they can have only lands they owned when they were gifted "being a Province" , That would NOT include mostly all the mineral rich lands. Quebec was small "Lower Canada",before they became a Province,(if my history is correct)
I think ,if a segment of Quebec wants to seperate ,give them quebec City and Montreal and all the communities around those major cities and leave the rest for Franco and Anglo Canadians to continue building a great Province. The fact that Quebec is known throughout the World as a mining freindly,yet mining responsible society ,is no small measure of success. Why would they want to destroy that ?
Re: Quebec Election Results Could Spell Bad News F ...
Not to worry southpen, This minority government will not last long and will be turfed out in my opinion. The student tuition protest and corruption were the big issues for the former Liberal government and now will be on the separatists plate to resolve. It is one thing to make promises and accusations when you are not in power and quite another when you take charge and in this case without a clear mandate to govern.
Re: Quebec Election Results Could Spell Bad News F ...
Aaron, "without a majority gov't;" Does that mean the miners and explorers can relax or do you think these absurd royalties might be enacted. ? I heard 5% on all assets off the top and a 30% tax on what they gross. Talk about destroying value,IF that's true. NMX and QRM seem unchanged. Both companies looking for some MAJOR developments ,which will mean steady revenue's and jobs for Quebec ,without changing a thing.
These people gotta be bent . I hope this minority gov't will back off. Like I said,I'm guessing ,really don't know what's going on.
Re: Quebec Election Results Could Spell Bad News F ...
First off, the murder outside the victory speech building last night was shocking. My thoughts and prayers are with the family of the man who died.
In regard to the election: I thought the days of Quebec separating were behind us? Evidently not in its new leaders’ eyes (although I doubt the majority of people in Quebec really want to separate). After watching Ms. Marois victory speech last night, I found it to be hostile. She clearly wants sovereignty for Quebec. She said “As a nation, we want to take ourselves the decisions that affect us. We want a country. And we'll have it."
I was also particularly disturb by her comments towards so called anglophone and native communities. She felt it necessary to let them know that their rights would be protected... this really rubbed me the wrong way. Of course there rights will be protected! This is Canada and we have laws and human rights. The fact that she even felt it necessary to mention that shows how extreme thinking she is.
Quebec is a beautiful province with great people and tons of economic potential. I am very concerned some of that potential is in question with this new leadership. Thankfully Ms. Marois’ party does not have a majority.
Re: Quebec Election Results Could Spell Bad News F ...
I am in no position to predict who will win the Que. provincial election, results can turn on a dime but I would suggest the mining royalty issue is a "trial balloon" by inept politicians. Shades of leftist S. American dictators, some politicians have absolutely zero comprehension of how business works and never get done conceiving new taxes as revenue to squander and dish out to political friends. The pigs are at the trough but Que. has been one of the best mining jurisdictions in the world and we can only hope that sanity will prevail and it will remain so even if there are some adjustments in the regulations. Lloyds comment about them "always wanting more" reminds me of the article I posted on Que. in the piece titled "I'm Forever Blowing Bubbles ---" YES it seems the majority of the voters there seem to think Que. is ENTITLED to receive more than its fair share from the rest of the provinces, yet they are one of the richest themselves.
thinker70
Re: Quebec Election Results Could Spell Bad News F ...
Liberals are not going to win this election.. PQ might win but not with a majority.. There are now 3 left parties that openly promote independance: PQ, QS (Quebec Solidaire) and ON (Option National).. People like me are fearing that PQ enters the governement and that QS wins enough county to force the PQ to adopt some extreme left position.. It's still the same problem as before: too much people are benefitting from the actual system to change it.
As for myself I'll vote for the CAQ (Coalition Avenir Quebec) without much enthousiasm... But at least they've showed some will to fight the Unions, the corruption and even allow municipalities to try to change the retirement plans that are sinking the province right now... I don't think they'll succeed, too much people are benefiting from this Ponzi scheme backed by law and growed by Unions, but at least if they can open the discussions and show what is to be done to fix the system, it'll be a start.. If the CAQ gets a strong majority, university strike will be nothing compared to what is coming in term of social disturbance but I prefer a fight with all the Unions and others group of interest now than having to deals with the bankers from bay and wall street that finance the debt (which is about 253B$ all included) later..
Re: Quebec Election Results Could Spell Bad News F ...
I agree with you Frank. French is no longer the language of the United Nations. It is a widely used language ,as is German,Spanish and Dutch ,coming from former explorers and colonists,but compared to English,it's a joke .Other than Vietnam,not used much in Asia at all .The international community told us all a long time ago,we were proceeding into a Global economy . English has been chosen to be the language of the World. Trying to be a dominant manufacturer ,miner and tourist destination does not sit well with being a protectionist. I don't think Anglo Canada ever insisted on them losing their heritage or culture ,but simply wants them to be business freindly.
I don't know what impact the PQ will be on miners but I've read about 30% tax .Yikes !,,,,, Why would they elect such obvious dismantling of an important industry ? Do you know if there is a likelihood on Sept. 4rth for a PQ victory ?,or will the Liberals prevail ? I spoke to a miner from Quebec resently and the Liberals seem to have overwhelming support ,but that's from the mining industry. I guess that really does not say a lot.
Re: Quebec Election Results Could Spell Bad News F ...
Canada's greatest strength is its cultural diversity, in which rather than being a melting as the US describes themselves, We have encouraged new immigrants to retain the best of that uniqueness in all the right ways. The Province of Quebec lost the battle of the cradle in which the Roman Catholic Church encouraged large families of a dozen or so kids. Now the birth rate in Quebec is just about the lowest in the country and the parishes or closing left right and centre,so the Province made it easier for french speaking immigrants to enter and are trying to put their habitant cultural stamp on them. In the long run they face a losing battle. Our biggest trading partner to the south does business in English and interested only in a few french phrases like soup de jour, filet mignon and bon appatit.
Re: Quebec Election Results Could Spell Bad News F ...
Hi southpen, The Quebec Liberal Party has been very mine friendly and Quebec at this time'. Political talk is cheap, just like Romney and his thoughts about revisiting the gold standard. It may generate some popularity but never come to fruition. The problem with the Liberals is increased corruption due to an extended period of the party being in power and its poor handing of a recent university strike resulting in the liklihood of the Liberals being turfed.Smaller parties also running could see Quebec with a minority government which might end up being the best of both world, usually ending inanother election sooner rather than later
Re: Quebec Election Results Could Spell Bad News F ...
My mother was born in Quebec and I would visit my Grand parents every summer in Otter Lake, Pontiac County, an hour or so north east of Ottawa. At that time the two parties were the Union Nationale and the Liberals with the UN in power and the Liberals in opposition but the local rep was liberal. the roads were all aved until; you hit Pontiac County and suddenly it was gravel excepting the front of the Roman Catholic Church and the Convent. When Raymond Johnson the UN candidate was elected, as promised ,his governing part paved the road can recall my uncle's brother who owned the hotel,and supported the UN,when his candidate and party lost the election he had to sell as he had trouble renewing hiis liquor licence and my Uncle who worked in road construction had to move with his company to Ontario as the party they supported got turfed. Corruption like in the banana republics is the norm in Quebec no matter who is in power. The one thing Quebecois do know is that Canada foots the bills so the chances of any kin d of separation in this blogger's opinion is double zero and a hard line should be drawn when playing the political game with Quebecers. They are the most political saavy of all Canadians and they also know what side their bread is buttered on and its not french.
Re: Quebec Election Results Could Spell Bad News F ...
Frank, I'm not really in any way understanding the parties or who's representing what,in the Quebec elections. I understood,that 80 billion dollars would be there for support of the mining industry in Quebec over the next 25 years ,which is over 3 billion a year.Is that only one parties election promise?,or is that not accurate ?
Re: Quebec Election Results Could Spell Bad News F ...
Frank,
So true about them being a different animal, have been listening to them all my life. They keep squaking about a bigger share from Alberta Oil Sands, they just keep wanting more.Not supriseing they will do as Argentina has done.Bear in mind they are over 130 billon in debt and you can guess where they will go next.