The Real Commodities
BY: hunter49 - April 19th, 2008 - 1:18 PM
+303-16 As I search through reports and write ups from various professionals in the resource world, I constantly ask myself, what commodities will continue to outperform and stay in demand when other fade away. Moly (molybdenum) and alloy metals, steel is one that I believe will continue for some years. Copper seems a little bit less likey to continue its charge above $4 , even with the current shortage of supply, I expect it to diminish in value within 6 months,
oil i'm afraid will be trading above $100 for some time if not forever, with the number of cars being produced in asia and india, it is scary to imagine the demand that will arise. That is why I like oil funds,
in terms of the metals, which will continue and hold their historic highs, because they all simply cannot, I believe in molybdenum more and more as I research.
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Re: The Real Commodities
Hunter, I do agree with you in respect to moly, especially as the oil industry keeps on drilling for more oil with the high prices and shortages. (those drills bits require a lot of molybdenum). The thing with moly is that it is stable in price and doesnt fluctuate as irrationally as the some of the other metals and minerals. I do disagree somewhat on the copper equation. Copper is still in massive demand, so much so that the mines cannot keep up with it, and stockpiles are constantly being depleted. The housing (or should I say hosing) fiasco in the US has been going on for quite awhile now, yet since January stockpiles of copper have been depleted by at least 40%. The price of copper has been steady at about $4 a pound, with Asia and China eating up copper like a raccoon and a bag of garbage. They just cant seem to get enough. Now I predicted $5 copper, and I still predict it, and I am even thinking that may be on the conservative side. There are to many factors pointing in coppers future. A few will be the added demand by the us of copper in hospitals for fighting germs. Teck just announced it will help finance a large deposit in Panama to the tune of over a billion dollars. Teck seems to like the prospects on copper when they are primarily a gold producer. Rio Tinto says copper demand will rise 40% over the next 10 years or so. No new major copper mines are coming into production in the near future. Companies requesting copper for wire have o wait sometimes 6 months for delivery. The list goes on and on. Alot of this is on the "COPPER TOP" board and also some on my blog. Stockpile numbers speak volumes.
jmho