What is the NUMBER ONE commodity.. to capitalize on US Dollar collapse???

Yes I know gold is the answer. But aside from gold and stuffing your pocket with silver coins. What comoddities will the rest of the world buy. Which one will get the biggest bang if the US dollar collapses. What does the US own a ton of, what commodity dont they have...

All commodities will not rise as one, but all will rise. I think as intelligent investors we know this. Does anyone think one will rise more than any other. What will China and emerging companies need more than anything else. Is it steel, copper perhaps? A big part of me thinks oil could rise to $300 or more per barrel if massive panic and hyper inflation ensues. Just think what the value of travel could be worth.. something set aside for the rich and privileged only..

This is an age old debate when it comes to comoddities but I think it is becoming more relevant now than ever as our currencies become devalued and comoddities begin to take center stage.

Community Talk

Re: What is the NUMBER ONE commodity.. to ...StarGazer

StarGazer, that's a good question -  I will get in touch with Jack & get back to you.   I have never seen an older gentleman so in tune with mining stocks before.  It gives us young guys hope for the future.

Re: What is the NUMBER ONE commodity.. to ...StarGazer

U.S. Silver Corp. will be my favourite silver stock if it does better then the others I own.  You know how it is when you play the penny stock market, some do better then others. USA has the makings of being a real winner.

What does Jack compare USA with other silver companies he has invested in?

Re: What is the NUMBER ONE commodity.. to ...StarGazer

Stargazer, you have recommended U.S. Silver Corp -  USA:TSXV here -   funny but I had a very intelligent 87 yr old patient in my office by the name of Jack (I have mentioned him before) -  he just made $4,000 profit & came in to give another $500 to Bishop Terry Dance's Wellness Fund for African Orphans in the Diocese of Mthatha in Eastern Cape Province South Africa.  God bless him -  now only $2800 off $70,000!

   Jack also handed me a 2009 Annual Report booklet on U.S. Silver Corp which you like.   Jack is one smart dude -  so are you!   Is U.S. Silver Corp your favorite silver stock StarGazer?

 

 

 

Re: What is NUMBER ONE - Gold hits Record High - more to come!

SPOT MARKET IS OPEN
closes in 10
hrs. 43 mins.

Jun
08, 2010 06:32 NY Time

 Bid/Ask
1249.30
-
1250.30

 Low/High
1236.50
-
1253.30

 Change
+9.00
 
+0.73%

30daychg
+41.30
 
+3.42%

1yearchg
+298.60
 
+31.41%

Charts...

Re: What is the NUMBER ONE - Gold $10,000 by 2012?.

Gold to Reach Parabolic Top of $10,000 by 2012 -
Yes, $10,000 by 2012!

Gold to Reach Parabolic Top
of $10,000 by 2012 - Yes, $10,000 by 2012!

 

By Arnold Bock    

Jun 7 2010 12:53PM

 

Most technical analyses of the gold bullion and
precious metals mining stocks are useless ... indeed misleading. As I
see it gold and silver's parabolic rise will coincide with future
sovereign debt defaults, currency inflation/devaluations and rampant
asset price inflation. This should happen from mid 2011 thru 2012 with
gold reaching a parabolic top of $10,000.

Not surprisingly, I have company in that
view:

- Peter Schiff told Business Week recently
that, "People are afraid of the debasement of all the currencies.
What's surprising is that gold is still as low as it is ... Gold could
reach $5,000 to $10,000 per ounce in the next 5 to 10 years.”

- According to David Rosenberg, "There is no
doubt that gold can easily double from here. Demand is always
difficult to forecast ... but central banks bought more gold last year
(425 tons) than at any other time since 1964. (Furthermore) the supply
backdrop supports a sustained bull market, as production has fallen in
5 of the last 8 years. We know what the marginal cost curve is doing
because there is so little cheap supply left in the ground that gold
companies now have to drill as much as 2.3 miles to get to the yellow
metal in South Africa (and all Bernanke has to do is press a button)."

THE CAUSES

1. No History of Consequence

Gold has only been trading unencumbered from
backing fiat currencies since Nixon's 1971 decision to stiff the
French, etc. when trying to repatriate their paper dollars for the
metal. As such, there is little history of consequence (of value) to
measure market action.

2. Market Manipulation

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)
recently held a major hearing which blew the doors off the bullion
metals trading markets - the "sleeper" which I predict will be viewed
retrospectively as the gold price liberation event.

We all knew JP Morgan Chase had been
manipulating the metals markets on behalf of the FED and other central
banks and this event proved it! The hearing (specifically Jeff
Christensen’s statements) inadvertently confirmed that trading has been
occurring using naked shorts/no hedging and that there was little
bullion (only about one ounce of metal for 100 ounces of a trade)
backing up such trades should the holders ask for it rather than cash or
roll their futures into other futures paper. This revelation was much
worse than even critics, such as the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee
(GATA), had expected.

3. Insufficient Physical Inventories

It seems that the Asian and Mid East
buyers and owners of bullion have been removing gold from the "normal"
bank and bullion dealers vaults and taking it "home" thus leaving
much less than previously thought in the London and New York and
Toronto vaults. A case in point is that of a major metals investor in
Toronto who finally got to view his stash of metal in the Scotia
Macotta vault and noted that there wasn't nearly enough metal to back
up his certificates, even though he was paying storage and all kinds of
other fees on his metal.

The above begs the question: “Do these large ETF
bullion funds actually have any or much bullion at all?” The answer is
clearly that they do not and that, in the near future, when some
serious speculators from Asia, Russia and the mid-East get their acts
together, they will force the issue.

THE EFFECT

The revelation that there is insufficient
physical inventory to meet this new demand for physical ownership of
the actual bullion (i.e. show me the money!) is about to blow the
price lid skyward.

$10,000 per ounce by 2012

This should happen from mid 2011 thru 2012
and I wouldn't be surprised to see a US $10,000 per ounce top during
this period!

The 2008/2009 crash originated with the
financial institutions which governments bailed out. This time there is
no institution - certainly not the IMF - to bail out the governments.
Gold and silver metals and mining shares (the new Homestakes) will be
the clear winners.

Conclusion

Call me nuts; assume I do too much reading;
assume I don't have access to appropriate reality checks; assume what
you want - but I am increasingly confident that the fundamental
realities of fragile sovereign debt, market manipulation, insufficient
physical supply and the need for a safe haven investment refuge, will
drive precious metals particularly, and commodities generally,
dramatically higher in the not too distant future.

Get yourself positioned to take advantage of
this once in a lifetime ride.

Arnold Bock
www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com

Re: What is the NUMBER ONE commodity.. to ...

Good golly! bUried in the fields... Sounds like a myth or a story of legend we will tell 50 years from now..

I think the government confiscating our gold has a very remote possibility.  None the less won't keep it all in the safety deposit box!

Oil looks like a great bargain in the high 60s.. I could easily foresee $200 or higher if an oil crisis or simply increased demand by population.. Its all about the emerging markets. the BRIC nations will lead the next bull market in oil. 

Re: What is the NUMBER ONE commodity.. to ...

My preference is oil and silver and I am pleased to see US Silver Corp. USA CA TSXV, US USSIF is up 1.5 to 2 cents  from the time I suggest members of PD consider buying it, I feel it is going a lot higher.

Gold is benefiting from strong demand in China as reported here:

Gold sales in China are up over 70% year-over-year, and the sale of gold bars has doubled from a year ago, according to CCTV, the large state Chinese television station.

The surging demand may be the result of Chinese investors shifting their focus from real estate to gold. This is a snippet from CCTV's report, which gives you a peek into what is starting to happen:

"Housing speculators from Wenzhou City in southeastern China are switching their money from property into gold following government restrictions on the real estate market.
 

Re: What is the NUMBER ONE commodity.. to ...

I like the trio of gold, oil & silver.   Why not benefit from all 3?    I would also like to know  how any government would confiscate anyone's gold -   gold is a stabilizing factor.   The government need to stay out of private lives.  Owning gold is a right, not a crime!    I know of farmers locally who have literally buried large amounts of gold on the farm - haha.    Only the cows, goats & chickens know where it is.

In short if I had to pick  one it would be gold.   If oil ever hit $300/barrel would hate to think what would happen to the airline industry & world travel -  good luck here.

Re: What is the NUMBER ONE commodity.. to ...

I like oil as the most undervalued commodity. You want to talk about what China wants more than anything, it's oil.
2011 looking great for oil

http://www.heatingoil.com/blog/investment-bank-cibc-and-eia-predict-stea...

Re: What is the NUMBER ONE commodity.. to ...

Excellent post chap. So is it oil and not gold that is number one?? For the short term at least I think it has a darn good shot.

cheerio

Re: What is the NUMBER ONE commodity.. to ...

I bought another 1000 shares of Baytex Energy Trust BTE.UN this morning. This is absolutely one of the best oil companies in Canada.  This down day creates another supreme opportunity to buy shares in this company.

It raised it's dividend 50% early this year, it's current yield is 7.24%, and it pays it out at 18 cents a month. I urge those members of PD interested in income and share appreciation to seriously consider investing in Baytex Energy Trust BTE.UN at this time, exdividend day is on the 27th of this month.      

Re: What is the NUMBER ONE commodity.. to ...

How to Cash in on "Fire Sale" Oil

By Jim Amrhein | Tuesday, May 25th, 2010

Editor’s Note:  As markets continue to gyrate, oil prices have seemingly entered free fall. After almost touching $90.00 per barrel, the European crisis and other factors have quickly sent it back to $70.00.

This has created a rare buying opportunity — one that could make you easy money as oil climbs back to where it was just weeks ago... and on toward record prices after that.

Don't let the current market fool you. Oil is headed higher. So don't take your eye off the ball as the bear market theme of gold comes to the fore.  Guest contributor Jim Amrhein has more...

Good Investing,

I’ve got nothing against gold.

It’s a worthy vehicle for appreciation in certain conditions, and versatile as both a hard currency and a hedge against monetary failures...

However, my thought has always been that if the system collapses to the point where gold becomes widely traded as money once again, other things will be worth just as much. Things like guns, ammunition, batteries, liquor, gasoline, heating oil, cows, chickens, and goats.

Besides this, I think it's naïve to believe that our government would even allow the private ownership of gold during any kind of dire national monetary emergency...

If the poop hits the propeller, the government is very likely to take your gold away like it did in 1933, with Executive Order 6102. I might remind people that this happened in response to a currency and banking crisis not unlike today’s in some respects.

I can’t imagine the G-men would have much success collecting everyone’s bullets, batteries, booze, and bulls.

Now, before throngs of you write in to tell me I don’t know my history, I realize that the United States was on a different monetary standard in 1933 — one that arguably allowed FDR to seize gold under an obscure WWI act of Congress...

All I’m saying is that our government is a powerful entity — and able to justify almost anything it wants to do through any number of channels and statutes (see also: passage of health care bill). A presidential Executive Order is only one of them.

Believe me, if Big Brother decides that privately held and traded gold undermines the stability of the monetary system, they could find a way to either seize it or declare it as illegal tender if they wanted to.

But I digress...

This piece isn’t about the yellow metal everyone’s buzzing over at the moment; it's about the kind of gold that can actually make you some BIG money: black gold.

With all eyes on gold, it’s time to buy OIL

The freakish dip in oil prices we’re seeing right now may be one of your last opportunities to buy into all manner of oil-based investments at bargain prices.

As I’m sure you already know, this dip is not being caused by any increase in crude production — or a forecasted decline in demand for oil...

In fact, the IEA predicts that 2010 will sharply reverse two straight years of declining world oil consumption to break 2007’s record of 86.5 million BPD.

Rather, the tumbling oil prices of the last few weeks are due to a U.S. dollar that’s suddenly — and, many experts believe, temporarily — stronger in comparison to the debt-strained euro, the world’s largest currency in circulation.

Just yesterday, Bloomberg’s BusinessWeek confirmed this: Crude oil tumbled to a 12-week low in New York as the strengthening dollar curbed the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment.

Oil is priced in dollars. And all other factors being equal, when the buck spikes, oil dips.

Simple as that.

Right now is one of those rare anomalies (read: window of incredible opportunity) when extreme events briefly disrupt the two-part scenario almost all credible analysts foresee:

1) World oil demand soars, while conventional crude production falls (See: Peak Oil).

2) The dollar declines as the U.S. government prints and spends ever more of them on things that do nothing the restore America’s engine of economic greatness: industry.

These factors translate into only one thing: A sustained boom in oil prices such that the world has never seen.

Morgan Stanley calls for oil to potentially touch $120 in 2011...

B of A/Merrill Lynch sees oil bouncing back to $105 this year...

Barclays more conservatively predicts $100 oil by the end of 2010...

And all of these venerated experts see oil hitting $135-$150 by 2012-2015.

So it’s easy to see how today’s low-$70s crude price is a freakishly favorable window of opportunity to get in on well-chosen oil investments...