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A forum of Gold and Silver Equities
Today ,it seems we have many experts calling for a return interest in gold and silver equities.Although gold and silver have come down some, from recent highs ,analysts believe that the spot price of both have a great future in 2012 .The equities are another story. They have been smashed on the rocks with some decent junior or intermediate producers making marginal comebacks ,but all told developers and explorers have been devastated. Here lies the the risk in stock investment when your only concern is Asset Value.I appreciate all the comments from the pro's but I wanted to reach out into the Pinnacle Community of amateur investors and try to make some sense out of an enormous list of gold and silver candidates that could make a lot of people here a lot wealthier in the next year,if what some pro's say comes through for us ,which is,BUY GOLD and SILVER equities,soon. I asked Frank Tabbert and he gave me a short list of Golden Goliath ,Golden Predator and Kootenay Gold. All undervalued in his opinion. If some others here at Pinnacle could put in their own companies with explanations why their pics could make us richer,I'd like to hear .Feel free to comment on bad companies as investing is just as much about insight into what not to invest in. I'm looking to draw attention to exploration companies ,developers and smaller producers,all in Gold and Silver Equities.
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Re: A forum of Gold and Silver Equities
Here's another comment from Casey's ,which I happen to agree with and have stated as much here at Pinnacle on other forums. I agree with buying gold & silver stocks for the long term but don't put all your cash into a sector that is constantly be hyped by pundits
Jim Sinclair and Doug Casey are prime examples
Doug Casey, Chairman (The Casey Report): Frankly, I don't care about short-term fluctuations in the gold market - or any market. They're random and unpredictable. It makes no sense to clutter your mind with guesses about what might happen in the next hour, day, week, or even month. If you try to trade on that basis, you'll be eaten alive by commissions, bid-ask spreads, taxes, and the vagaries of your own psychology. I'm only concerned with the long term.
As for gold, it's not a bargain at $1,600, but in light of what governments all over the world are doing - creating trillions of new currency units - it's going higher. I continue to accumulate it mainly for safety, not gain. Right now I'm especially bullish on gold-mining stocks, which offer extraordinary speculative potential.
Re: A forum of Gold and Silver Equities
A recent comment from Casey's
I won't beat around the bush: the bear has come out of hibernation and has his claws in our favorite market sector - gold and silver - and he doesn't seem inclined to let go any time soon.
Sounds like something some of us were saying months ago
Re: A forum of Gold and Silver Equities
Atna stays ahead of all the destruction in this sector but things look bleak. US Silver & Gold is pathetic . Silver Standard is worse ,if that's possible. Atna seems to be building a solid group of assets despite the gold price. I wish they would have merged with US Silver.
Re: A forum of Gold and Silver Equities
There are an incredible number of undervalued companies out there but the key metric for me is how much money they have in the kitty and what their burn rate is. An easy trap to fall into is to ass-u-me that because a stock is selling at say 50% or less below a previous high, it must be a bargain! Not necessarily it may be down for many different reasons other than a general market sell off. There may be Mgmt. problems, there may be poor drill results, there may be permitting delays, newly developed juridictional risk, strikes as recently in S. Africa, difficulty raising needed funds (my main current concern) and companies without a currently defined 43-101 resource have become highly speculative UNLESS they have a previously successful management team that has the reputation and contacts needed to attract new capital.
That being said I will list a couple of companies that I consider grossly undervalued who have good Mgmt. and are probable takeover targets; Timmins Gold TMM, Mag Silver, MAG, Balmoral BAR, Orezone Gold ORE, and 2 more speculative stocks in my portfolio for some time that I considered entering into the contest, Orbite Aluminum ORT which is building a pilot plant that will also allow them to do Rare Earth extraction and custom milling in Que. one of the best mining jurisdictions in the world that rebates 40% of exploration expenditures. Another portfolio holding that has been moving up smartly is Orocobre ORL in the lithium business and is also still "speculative" and requires your due diligence, (actually all of them do) but all have been moving in a solid uptrend.
thinker70
Re: A forum of Gold and Silver Equities
http://www.goldenpredator.com/documents/GPDNR12-27-2012-09-27.pdf.pdf
Golden Predator arranges USD $35,000,000 Loan Facility with RK Mine Finance; Closes Brewery Creek Acquisition
TSX: GPD
VANCOUVER, Sept. 27, 2012 /PRNewswire/ - Golden Predator Corp. (TSX:GPD) (the "Company") is pleased to announce that it has executed definitive agreements with MF Investment Holding Company 1 (Cayman) Limited ("MF Investment"), part of the Red Kite group, for a senior secured loan facility in the principle amount of USD $35,000,000 (the "Loan"). The Loan proceeds will be utilized to develop the Brewery Creek project and complete the Brewery Creek acquisition.
"We are pleased that Red Kite has appreciated the opportunities presented by our Brewery Creek project. This financing consolidates our interest in the project and ensures Brewery Creek moves forward as planned," said William M. Sheriff, Chairman and CEO. We look forward to Brewery Creek advancing towards becoming the Yukon's next gold producer in 2014."
USD $35,000,000 Loan Facility
The Loan will be provided through three advances, the first advance of USD $10,000,000 having been provided on September 25, 2012 and two subsequent advances of USD $10,000,000 and USD $15,000,000, respectively, being made on completion of certain specified conditions including delivery of an acceptable pre-feasibility study and receipt of any required permit amendments for the Brewery Creek Project.
The first $10,000,000 of the Loan matures on July 1, 2015, the next $15,000,000 on March 31, 2016 and the final $10,000,000 matures on December 31, 2016. The Loan bears interest payable at LIBOR plus 8% per annum, subject to a minimum interest rate of 10%. As a condition to the second advance of the Loan, the Company has agreed to enter into an offtake agreement under which it will sell to MF Investment the first 500,000 ounces of gold produced from the Brewery Creek Project at a discount of 1.5% to the spot price.
Of the initial advance, CAD $3,205,000 was used to complete the acquisition by Golden Predator of the Brewery Creek Project from Alexco Resource Corp. ("Alexco") as more particularly described below, with the balance of the net proceeds of the Loan will be used exclusively to fund the working capital requirements of the Company related to or arising in connection with the exploration and development of the Brewery Creek Project.
Re: A forum of Gold and Silver Equities
Interesting perspective southpen, but I would counter that there are very few "PURE" gold plays while there is a huge choice of combinations from virtually equal amounts of copper, silver, and many other minor metals. If you want a really hot stock that has gone from a low of .35 to a high of $3.85 in the past year, (currently around $3.18) check out Reservoir Minerals RMC-V which was a spinoff from Reservoir Capital that is no slouch itself and has great prospects in Serbia. While they have good gold reserves, their copper resource is SPECTACULAR at over 10%, no misprint, yet copper deposits of 1% are considered excellent, which is probably WHY this small Canadian junior is backed by no less than Freeport FcMoran a reknowned world copper producer.
Regarding the outcome of the election, can't see much difference as BOTH candidates are Keynesians and controlled by the banking elite or cabal if you prefer and have no choice but to continue their "money priniting" ways, which means inflation is inevitable, the dollar will continue to decline and gold will continue to go up when measured in ANY fiat currency. Of course now that Japan and China have joined Europe and the U.S. in the race to the bottom for their respective currencies the beneficiary is bound to be gold.
As an ATNA shareholder I concur, it is a great stock and there are many more that have a primary reserve that is mostly gold.
thinker70
Re: A forum of Gold and Silver Equities
Grant, I 'm still skeptical of pure gold plays . I've had this argument for several months now ,that both candidates in the U.S. for President don't like gold or it's impact.Since both candidates will be cosy with Wall St. (Romney) or the ,Federal Reserve (Obama),I don't see a clear direction for gold like the masses do. I don't think gold is a bad investment,I just think it's importance is limited over the next few months. We really don't know the impact a continuation of Obama or a Romney Presedency will bring .All we really know is the rhetoric that's been floating around for 2 years or so.
If investing in PM stocks I think deposits or companies with gold and something else (something important that can go up if gold mellows ) are preferable to strictly gold.I also believe that picking a stock is more important than the sector at this point. Scottie endorsed ATNA and they are clearly a stock that runs counter to my theory of having a large (other ) mineral ,but the company is SO good,I just think he picked a winner. Always room for exceptions.
Re: A forum of Gold and Silver Equities
scottie; I've been following these polymettalic deposits where PGM's are a big part of the resource. Duluth Mining seems to be on a tear as well . They own 60% of a deposit that makes Prophecy's seem tiny,if your looking at the Indicated stats. I like both of them because they have the PGM's ,good resource of Gold and Duluth more particularly is a huge deposit of copper and nickel.
Going back to these polymettalic deposits,some experts , Mickey Fulp for one ,won't touch them no matter how great the resource is. I know you didn't like casino because of the infrastructure needed but we really have to develop a better understanding why polymettalics costs are so much greater. Seperation of all these metals is expensive,of course ,but if all the metal is valuable,then Why are they so difficult to become economic.? Fulp is more a guy that's an early -intermediate exploration speculator," first " He see's little value in these things mainly because the profit is so far off,imo.
Re: A forum of Gold and Silver Equities
nice. I've had some of mine go up 30 or 40% in the past 2 months. But many are still lagging. I still think 2000 gold is needed for new highs and buyers to come back big.
Re: A forum of Gold and Silver Equities
NKL still on a tear.
Re: A forum of Gold and Silver Equities
NKL has been on a tear. Up 55% in the last week or so
Re: A forum of Gold and Silver Equities
Hecla is a mess and they screwed up not upping their offer for the Galena. They claim they really don't think much of the Galena ,yet wanted the Brownfield exploration all around it.RVM likes the Galena but not so much the exploration package ,so I get that both would have been much stronger with US Silver assets.,both were not very convincing .Both wanted USA. I like RVM 's future but they need a revenue producer better than Troy. They plan to build Rock Creek slowly (small mining permit ) maybe 30-40 million to get something going .Troy will likely never produce more than 1.5 to 2 million oz /year and it's costs are sure to rise. Most of the resource is above the pillars ,so once an area is exploited ,there's no going back..Galena with it's extensive Brownfeild would of been a perfect fit.I told RVM,begged them to make a share offer but no go... nobody wanted to compete with a cash position,( which was distorted ),from Hecla. I even asked ATNA to look into a merger .Anyway,only the old shareholders lose.Like I said ,a good buy,imo short term.(if silver is something you want)
Re: A forum of Gold and Silver Equities
NKL and ECC showing some nice price action today. NKL seems to be basing and ECC shows a small inverted head and shoulders pattern over last month. Bought into a little bit of ECC today.
Re: A forum of Gold and Silver Equities
@Southpen, at least you guys didnt get taken under by Hecla.
Re: A forum of Gold and Silver Equities
thanks for posting. saw write up on Novo. I am looking for producers in the 200-400 ounce category with hopes of 1 million ounces by 2015. that sort of thing. Nova gold is one I like.
I like Endeavour Mining (EDV) as a mid tier producer with signficiant production and exploration upside but have focused my investments on the junior producers.
Re: A forum of Gold and Silver Equities
US Silver ;I can't trade shares. FROZEN. That's the price including RX .Pretty horrible for me and the others that are long the stock but ...an opportunity to new people.Basically we the common shareholders lost 1/3rd of our shares to support this deal.The share structure is about the same and the company now has a much better management and a small gold /silver asset.but it cost us 1/3rd .Not happy but I do believe at this level is a good investment for the new.
Re: A forum of Gold and Silver Equities
thanks for posting. saw write up on Novo. I am looking for producers in the 200-400 ounce category with hopes of 1 million ounces by 2015. that sort of thing. Nova gold is one I like.
Re: A forum of Gold and Silver Equities
Whats with the ramp up on USA today? Just the conference call putting confidence back in shareholders?
Also, Novo Resources got a pump rally from Bob Mortiarty at 321gold. Apparently a witswatersrand (South African gold district) doppleganger in Australia. The company is headed up by Quinton Hennigh. NVO looks interesting to watch for the future.
Re: A forum of Gold and Silver Equities
Hey scottie; without you beating the drum, I would not have a potential Yukon miner. I think that GPD is the best value in the Yukon,especially under 40 cents,LOL. The Yukon is an important mining jurisdiction because with probably as much valuable metal in the ground as Alaska ,it does not have the ocean and it's related shoreline environmental hazards.It can easily access the water for transport without the negatives ,now so obvious with the Worlds greatest undeveloped metal resource sitting idle,maybe permanently.Northern Dynasty now at 2.30
. IT likely should be ,so my lesson from Pebble is that location , is as important as the deposit itself.,imo
Re: A forum of Gold and Silver Equities
Thanks for clarifying, Frank.
Still, even I am getting tired of hearing myself beat the drum on GPD.
I think anyone who is following this forum is well caught up to speed.
Re: A forum of Gold and Silver Equities
Hey scottie, My remarks were not pointed at any member in particular, but to all the experienced investors in general having a responsibility when they post their thoughts on this forum. As for GPD, when I see its President continuing to buy on the open market, for me this is a must stock to hold in the speculative portion of ones portfolio. As for the technicals and unique features of GPD, scottie your experience in that area should continue to be shared with the members. I originally contacted you on stockhouse to talk about GPD on this forum and I consider you a valued Pinnacle member and continue to look forward reading your blogs.
Re: A forum of Gold and Silver Equities
Hey Frank, your point is duly noted.
Clearly, I take every opportunity to underscore the many strengths of GPD. This is for the benefit of those interested in investing with GPD and am encouraging those that already own the stock to hold strong. As Rick Rule has said, short term the market is a voting machine but over the long term the market is a weighing machine. GPD weighs alot more than what the market is currently giving it credit for. From this point forward, I will keep the GPD fun facts to myself (I don't think these are embellishments) when unsolicited. I will only answer with regards to GPD when members ask a question. Thanks
Re: A forum of Gold and Silver Equities
Thanks thinker70, I believe the novice investor would do well to read the various thoughts and ideas on this forum and IO feel the more experience here have an obligation as mentors to use utmost care when we recommend a stock pointing out the pros and cons erfraing from embellishing our pet favourite. This forum has a pretty clean record in that regard.
Re: A forum of Gold and Silver Equities
Southpen, the CAPEX is definitely a major concern for WRN. Just building the access roads will cost $100M... more than 3x the CAPEX required to get GPD's phase 1 up and running. The power plant adds another $210M out of an overall CAPEX of $2B. It will be a challenge for WRN to avoid cost overruns... Perhaps this is why their Director Ian Watson recently resigned... Ian Watson has a background in mine finance and investment banking... red flag?
I think it's funny that the labs thought the first sample from NKL was from a meteorite. LOL, they literally thought the sample was "out of this world".
Re: A forum of Gold and Silver Equities
I agree with most of the comments made and thank Frank Tabbert, scottiepimps59 and southpen for weighing in on the Yukon stocks because collectively we can assess their merits better than anyone of us can manage on our own. What one person misses somebody else may pick up on or present a different viewpoint based on background experience or longer term following, or reading different analysts viewpoints. As I said originally, I had only recntly discovered Western Copper & Gold and it initially seemed quite impressive, but I am taking the cautions expressed into consideration. I usually like to follow a company for some time before making a commitment so that I can evaluate managements performance and financial expertise. There is a lot of work to really check out a company thoroughly and even the best managed projects can run into speed bumps that are unforseen.
I think what novice investors in this space need to take into consideration is that it takes a long long time to go from an initial discovery to an actual producing and most important, PROFITABLE mine. Even once in production there can be serious ups and downs, a good example would be Golden Star GSC which has 3-4 mines in production, yet fell from a high near $7. to under $2. so there are market cycles as well as discovery and development cycles to contend with. DISCOVERY of course usually gets the biggest premium and unless you have inside information, that one is more luck than thorough analysis. The second major profit point is takeovers where you have a better chance of identifying that potential and one reason I tend to take smaller positions in a broader range of companies and it has paid off well for me with some major winners, the most recent AVION on a buyout proposal from Endeavour which I also hold. Some in our local Casey Phyle (Frank you should visit) are not very positive on Endeavour and i am struggling with whether to seek the best exit point on Avion or accept more Endeavour shares? Anybosy want to weigh in on that one?
Let me put out this question that might just be helpful to everyone reading these pages, what was the biggest lesson you learned as an investor in the 2011-12 market meltdown? For me it was that holding on to free trading shares because you made good money on the picks may not be the best strategy. I literally have dozens of stocks where I got my money off the table, sometimes in as little as a month, mostly in the 6 months range during 09-10, some took a year, but most of them I could rebuy today at about 40% - 60% BELOW where I sold. In other words I have held a lot of "dead money" in stocks that initially showed great promise but have done little or nothing since. I could have used that money (plus extra profits) more profitably by picking some new stocks that did hold up in the general downtrend.
My thinking now is that it might make more sense to take FULL PROFITS on a winning stock and just keep looking for others that are at a potentially good entry point so I have less stocks to monitor. Where I would not have put more than 2% of my capital into any one stock 2 years ago, today based on cherry picking the best from 200 accumulated free trading shares I might concentrate 5-10% in fewer stocks. So much to learn and so many new factors to consider, but I think we can all become better investors by having these discussions.
thinker70
Re: A forum of Gold and Silver Equities
I agree with you scottie.NKL is better than WRN ,by a long shot. I just think NKL will rise and fall again 3 or 4 times before it is finally valued correctly. (I'm really losing interest in swing trades because markets have never been more rigged) Between insiders with the smaller market caps and HFT on the bigger caps ,it's crazy to try and beat a system that exists or has been formed to screw the private smaller investor.Recognizing and properly ascessing value ,imo is the only way to win in this market and even that is being manipulated.(time wise)
.It's too early to understand the value at NKL in comparison to WRN , but WRN has too many obstacles and the resource is impressive but not all that impressive considering the cost.Not just the CAPEX ,but beyond ,it might turn out to be a white elephant. Better to spend 5 billion on the KSM than 2.3 billion on Casino,imo
Casino will become more valuable as deposits grow around it ,which will help justify that initial capex.ie; aren't they planning to actually build a power plant.?
I lost interest in them ,for now. with thanks to you for giving me a lesson on Casino,earlier.
Re: A forum of Gold and Silver Equities
Frank, We all make it obvious we have favorites,but what I've always appreciated here is the level of opinion,in other words "opinion backed by sound research".It's obvious to me that both you and scottie like GPD,but scottie's DD on GPD seems to of taken him to a confidence level that could be considered dangerous.,by some He "believes "and nothings going to change his investment strategy concerning GPD.I look at that amount of dedication as very good for me ,,because i'm not invested ,but am always interested.in the Yukon and most especially GPD.I know it's a good buy ,somewhere down the line ,I just don't know where that line is.. I'm the same with DEJ .I know the company backwards and forwards and not even a huge drop in share price is going to change my opinion .When they begin to acsend,both GPD and DEJ will be huge profits .I just can't afford to have a strong position on more than one stock. If I want the straight story on GPD ,I believe I'll get it ,through scottie,I can only hope others here believe me about DEJ,without believing I'm pumping it so I can sell in the run up. (that's really common)
I always try and stick to the value of the assets ,not projections. Price, rarely is in line with value.I look for stocks whose assets are undervalued and the price is 100% below that value. If you understand the value ,you've won half the battle.My only enemy which has beaten me this year, is TIME.,which is why I appreciate the comments on other stocks that I want but cannot have ,yet.
Re: A forum of Gold and Silver Equities
Hey Southpen, no doubt that NKL is a long ways from development given the constraints in the Yukon. However, I prefer NKL to WRN because of its mineral diversity, high grade, access, proximity to port and above all their potential for new discoveries. WRN appears like a mature discovery whereas NKL could easily double its resource. All it would take is one very nice hole to get NKL moving again and given that they now have double the working capital of WRN, I think chances are much better that NKL will put something out to get speculators excited.
That said, I think ECC is one of the best discovery plays in the Yukon along with lesser known explorers GSR (Plateau and Livingstone) and NTR (3Ace and Deet/Livingstone). If you're looking to roll the dice on a small position, ECC could be a 5 bagger after pending holes are released.
Side note: GPD's Idaho property is contiguous and directly south of ECC's Betty property. It appears mineralization is along a south-southwest fault that cuts right through Idaho. As well, GSR has identified the Golden Gate Trend in the Livingstone district that extends along strike into GPD's property and NTR's Deet property.
Re: A forum of Gold and Silver Equities
You know what southpen, Not one of us has all the answers I have my strengths and weaknesses but when we all come together as a group we are pretty damn knowledgeable.with a much better chance of sriking gold. Because of the varied opinions and constructive criticism, sanity has prevailed and we are free of the pumpers,promoters, bashers and name callers on this forum, except possibly for me getting talking up something once in a while. I must review all the potential explorers once again from the many recommendations put forward by contributors to this forum
Re: A forum of Gold and Silver Equities
scottie, I remember when I found the Casino deposit and you ripped it apart. A good move.Something we need to be constantly on the watch for is deposits that are just too big or expensive for juniors.Polymettalics ,for instance, are always expensive,need mills and experienced people in recovery. So many deposits sitting idle ,even after merging with a MAJOR,even after having a PEA completed. I think Wellgreen has a lot of potential but I wouldn't expect too much for a few years.Companies like Prophecy Platinum are really early ,imo . Look at their sister/mother company Prophecy Coal.Lots of potential but a huge difference between being or having a deposit (or two ) that have great plans and whether it will ever be economical for a company of that size. JV with a major is not always the easy path to wealth that some assume.
IE; Northern Dynasty/Anglo American,Nova Gold/Barrick,Nova Gold /Teck
S