Why the iPhone Will Fail

There has been a great deal of news concerning the new release of the 3G iPhone here in the U.S. Just walking around New York today, I saw two full AT&T stores of people lined-up to purchase this new toy. It's definitely sleek and offers some very well designed capabilities...but I believe that in its current form the device will fail to be a transformative force.

This might seem like an absurd statement, considering the promotional strengths of the iPhone's chief personification: Steve Jobs. But this time, Mr. Jobs has let his ego hinder his foresight. By trying to maintain control of all applications designed for the iPhone, Mr. Jobs has created a very limited product that doesn't have the depth to sustain long-term prominence.

I have recently traveled throughout Asia and observed numerous trends. Countries which have allowed the mobile phone to evolve naturally with little-to-no limitations on software and downloads are also the countries with the most interesting and evolved mobile capabilities. The world is moving ever-so-quickly to a new form of sharing and creating information: open-source and open-access are the way of the future. The same underlying concept that allowed the Personal Computer to flourish, the Internet to explode, and Wikipedia to grow is creating new market demands. By locking the iPhone applet development, Apple has locked the creativity necessary to enable any platform to flourish. By insisting that all new software be approved by the Company, Apple has walled-off the iPhone from the radical and disruptive design needed to move the product over the tipping point.

I believe in the open creation and sharing of information. Platforms that allow this to occur will succeed in this new world. Companies that enable this underlying human trend will show the ability to quickly gain value.