Crisis really OVER???... Why do I not believe you...

So Bank of America says the financial crisis is over. That the Fed's rate hike solidifies it!!! Not soo fast bail me out and make me rich bank of america.. what a joke for them to speak out. They should have their head down working for 2 years before they make a comment like that!!! Although positive sentiment leads to positive sentiment right.. besides I guess they owe the gov and Fed more than they'll ever be able to repay anyways. They owe the people of America their existance..

I also read today that inflation increased less than expected and that means the rate will stay frozen to the years end more than likely.. You be the judge, are we out of the woods?? I dont think so!!

Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve’s decision to raise the discount rate is a signal that “the financial crisis is largely over,” said Mickey Levy, chief economist at Bank of America in New York.

“It’s time to normalize things,” Levy said today in an interview on Bloomberg Radio. The Fed started lowering the rate on direct loans to banks when the financial crisis erupted in August 2007 and threatened the global banking system.

Central bankers will raise the benchmark federal funds rate on overnight loans between banks “when they’re convinced the economic recovery is sustainable,” Levy said. The overnight rate has been close to zero since December 2008.

The quarter-point increase in the discount rate to 0.75 percent is the first since June 2006. The central bank announced its decision yesterday after the close of trading in New York.

“The Fed, during the financial crisis, lowered the discount rate relative to the federal funds rate as part of their providing excess liquidity to the markets,” Levy said.

“Now that those excess liquidity facilities have run off, and we’re not in a financial crisis anymore, it’s quite natural to move back toward normalcy in the spread between the discount rate and the funds rate,” he said.

“Any bank in a non-crisis situation is not borrowing at the discount window unless they’re in major trouble” and as a result, the increase in the discount rate “doesn’t mean that much,” Levy said.

Community Talk

Re: Crisis really OVER? Pres. And. Jackson re Fed Reserve Bank

As Andrew Jackson said of the Federal Reserve Bank
of his day

"Gentlemen, I have had men watching you for a long time and I am
convinced that you have used the funds of the bank to speculate in the
breadstuffs of the country. When you won, you divided the profits
amongst you, and when you lost, you charged it to the bank. You tell me
that if I take the deposits from the bank and annul its charter, I shall
ruin ten thousand families. That may be true, gentlemen, but that is
your sin! Should I let you go on, you will ruin fifty thousand families,
and that would be my sin! You are a den of vipers and thieves. I intend
to rout you out, and by the grace of the Eternal God, will
rout you out."


Andrew Jackson (March 15,
1767 – June 8, 1845) was the seventh
President
of the United States
(1829–1837).

Re: Crisis really OVER???... Why do I not believe ...

I think they need to be very careful on how quickly they slow down the stimlus. It needs to stop but they are pulling back to early on it due to pressure from the nations who aren't in such bad financial shape.

Re: Crisis really OVER??? Unemployment Insurance Tracker

Unemployment
Insurance Tracker

The unemployment insurance system is in crisis due to a
combination skyrocketing unemployment and – in some cases – poor
planning. A record 20 million Americans collected unemployment benefits
last year, and twenty-six states have run
out of funds and been forced to borrow from the federal government,
raise taxes, or cut benefits. In many other states the situation is
deteriorating fast. Using near real-time data on state revenues and the
benefits they pay out, we estimate how long state trust funds will hold
up. Click on a state to find the latest, plus historical data, and
details on tax increases and benefit cuts. (Updated Weekly:
last update July 01, 2010)

 

Bankrupt and Borrowing: The state's unemployment
fund is currently bankrupt and the state is borrowing from the federal
government.

 

In Trouble: The state's unemployment fund will
likely be depleted in six months or less.

 

In the Clear: The state's unemployment fund is
solvent.

 

How we did it

We built a formula! For details, check out our Nerd
Page
.

Take our survey

Help us understand what it’s like to be relying on the unemployment
safety net – or to fall through it – by answering a few
questions.

Reporting network

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for ProPublica's Reporting Network.

State
Trust Fund
(millions)
Borrowing
(millions)
6 Month
Projection
(millions)
*

Balance
(2004 to
Today)

Ala.

$193.2

$283.0

 

Alaska

$270.9

 

$339.5m

Ariz.

$72.6

$7.0

 

Ark.

$132.2

$330.9

 

Calif.

$112.5

$7,207.4

 

Colo.

$12.5

$169.1

 

Conn.

$313.8

$498.5

 

Del.

$30.1

$12.9

 

D.C.

$337.1

 

$391.7m

Fla.

$653.0

$1,612.5

 

Ga.

$313.3

$416.0

 

Hawaii

$61.9

 

Insolvent

Idaho

$61.7

$202.4

 

Ill.

$691.4

$2,239.6

 

Ind.

$18.3

$1,709.7

 

Iowa

$306.0

 

$214.9m

Kan.

$184.2

$88.2

 

Ky.

$180.1

$795.1

 

La.

$1,048.0

 

$868.8m

Maine

$302.6

 

$275.1m

Md.

$521.3

$133.8

 

Mass.

$679.0

$387.3

 

Mich.

$182.4

$3,876.8

 

Minn.

$9.3

$580.8

 

Miss.

$438.1

 

$486.7m

Mo.

$188.9

$722.1

 

Mont.

$122.5

 

$67.6m

Neb.

$202.4

 

$188.6m

Nev.

$66.1

$438.2

 

N.H.

$36.3

 

$1,375.9m

N.J.

$605.8

$1,749.6

 

N.M.

$215.9

 

$113.4m

N.Y.

$1,238.3

$3,176.9

 

N.C.

$19.0

$2,289.0

 

N.D.

$82.9

 

$65.7m

Ohio

$534.6

$2,314.2

 

Okla.

$398.5

 

$335.7m

Ore.

$857.5

 

$723.5m

Pa.

$1,096.1

$3,008.6

 

R.I.

$58.5

$225.5

 

S.C.

$106.3

$886.7

 

S.D.

$31.9

 

$59.1m

Tenn.

$308.0

 

$2,186.7m

Texas

$39.7

$1,290.7

 

Utah

$400.3

 

$232.4m

Vt.

$28.2

$32.7

 

Va.

$301.8

$346.9

 

Wash.

$2,241.7

 

$1,576.4m

W.Va.

$114.0

 

$217.6m

Wis.

$323.2

$1,424.8

 

Wyo.

$128.2

 

$71.8m

* When a state borrows to bolster its trust fund,
future trust fund balance predictions are no longer valid. See the Nerd
Page
for info.
Reporters: You are free to use
this data to report your stories. Just remember to credit Propublica.
Click through to individual states, and you can get a CSV download of
its unemployment data.

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};
$(document).ready(function () {
/*map({
selector:"states",
width: 465,
height: 325,
xml: "/unemployment/index/states.xml",
expressInstall: "/unemployment/images/expressInstall.swf?1278007021",
src: "/unemployment/images/us_albers.swf?1278007021"
});*/
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});

Re: Crisis really OVER??? Unemployment Insurance Tracker

Unemployment
Insurance Tracker

The unemployment insurance system is in crisis due to a
combination skyrocketing unemployment and – in some cases – poor
planning. A record 20 million Americans collected unemployment benefits
last year, and twenty-six states have run
out of funds and been forced to borrow from the federal government,
raise taxes, or cut benefits. In many other states the situation is
deteriorating fast. Using near real-time data on state revenues and the
benefits they pay out, we estimate how long state trust funds will hold
up. Click on a state to find the latest, plus historical data, and
details on tax increases and benefit cuts. (Updated Weekly:
last update July 01, 2010)

 

Bankrupt and Borrowing: The state's unemployment
fund is currently bankrupt and the state is borrowing from the federal
government.

 

In Trouble: The state's unemployment fund will
likely be depleted in six months or less.

 

In the Clear: The state's unemployment fund is
solvent.

 

How we did it

We built a formula! For details, check out our Nerd
Page
.


State
Trust Fund
(millions)
Borrowing
(millions)
6 Month
Projection
(millions)
*

Balance
(2004 to
Today)

Ala.

$193.2

$283.0

 

Alaska

$270.9

 

$339.5m

Ariz.

$72.6

$7.0

 

Ark.

$132.2

$330.9

 

Calif.

$112.5

$7,207.4

 

Colo.

$12.5

$169.1

 

Conn.

$313.8

$498.5

 

Del.

$30.1

$12.9

 

D.C.

$337.1

 

$391.7m

Fla.

$653.0

$1,612.5

 

Ga.

$313.3

$416.0

 

Hawaii

$61.9

 

Insolvent

Idaho

$61.7

$202.4

 

Ill.

$691.4

$2,239.6

 

Ind.

$18.3

$1,709.7

 

Iowa

$306.0

 

$214.9m

Kan.

$184.2

$88.2

 

Ky.

$180.1

$795.1

 

La.

$1,048.0

 

$868.8m

Maine

$302.6

 

$275.1m

Md.

$521.3

$133.8

 

Mass.

$679.0

$387.3

 

Mich.

$182.4

$3,876.8

 

Minn.

$9.3

$580.8

 

Miss.

$438.1

 

$486.7m

Mo.

$188.9

$722.1

 

Mont.

$122.5

 

$67.6m

Neb.

$202.4

 

$188.6m

Nev.

$66.1

$438.2

 

N.H.

$36.3

 

$1,375.9m

N.J.

$605.8

$1,749.6

 

N.M.

$215.9

 

$113.4m

N.Y.

$1,238.3

$3,176.9

 

N.C.

$19.0

$2,289.0

 

N.D.

$82.9

 

$65.7m

Ohio

$534.6

$2,314.2

 

Okla.

$398.5

 

$335.7m

Ore.

$857.5

 

$723.5m

Pa.

$1,096.1

$3,008.6

 

R.I.

$58.5

$225.5

 

S.C.

$106.3

$886.7

 

S.D.

$31.9

 

$59.1m

Tenn.

$308.0

 

$2,186.7m

Texas

$39.7

$1,290.7

 

Utah

$400.3

 

$232.4m

Vt.

$28.2

$32.7

 

Va.

$301.8

$346.9

 

Wash.

$2,241.7

 

$1,576.4m

W.Va.

$114.0

 

$217.6m

Wis.

$323.2

$1,424.8

 

Wyo.

$128.2

 

$71.8m

* When a state borrows to bolster its trust fund,
future trust fund balance predictions are no longer valid. See the Nerd
Page
for info.
Reporters: You are free to use
this data to report your stories. Just remember to credit Propublica.
Click through to individual states, and you can get a CSV download of
its unemployment data.

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Re: Crisis really OVER??? Just how BAD is it in the U.S.?

Inside the United States How Bad is it?

William (Bill) Buckler
Captain of The Privateer
Jun 28, 2010

It’s pretty bad. All of a sudden, the recovery has almost officially become “fragile” in the US. The official version was stated in the Fed’s press release following the FOMC meeting on June 22-23. “Financial conditions have become less supportive of economic growth on balance”, they said. Indeed they have. A recent report from a department of the US Treasury shows just how bad they have become.

Until this month, the Treasury was predicting that US funded debt would climb to $US 19.6 TRILLION by the end of fiscal 2019. That has been “revised”. On June 4, the Treasury released a report to Congress stating that the climb to $US 19.6 TRILLION would take place by 2015, four years earlier. They also predicted that this would be 102 percent of US GDP by that time. As of June 23, with fiscal 2010 nearing the end of its third quarter, the Treasury’s “debt to the penny” stood at $US 13.042 TRILLION.

The report said that the debt would reach $US 13.6 TRILLION by the end of fiscal 2010 on September 30. If it does, it will have grown by $US 1.7 TRILLION in fiscal 2010. And there was more. The Treasury projects that “publicly traded debt”, the debt held by entities outside the US government itself, will almost double from its present level of $US 7.48 TRILLION to $US 14 TRILLION by 2015.

Ten years ago, the US Treasury was talking about paying off ALL government debt by 2012. Five years ago, they were talking about returning to “balanced budgets” at or about that date and all talk of “reducing” debt had vanished. Look at what they are talking about now. As we said, it’s pretty bad.

“Greece On The Pacific”:

That is the new description of the US state of California, once touted as the eighth largest economy in the world. California - the headline state, the biggest state in terms of its internal economy - is facing the necessity of budget cuts which make the ones undertaken by the European Club Med nations look benign.

Like most US states, California has a fiscal year which ends on June 30. Like ALL US states, California is barred by law from running a budget deficit. The problem is that California is staring at a $19 Billion “deficit” in the year which ends at the end of June and a $US 37 Billion deficit over the year that ends in June 2011. Given a budget of about $US 125 Billion, that’s a 2010-11 shortfall of almost 30 percent.

Almost all US states are in the same predicament, only the size differs. So far, their budget deficits have been papered over by Mr. Obama’s stimulus plan of 2009, but that money has mostly already been spent. Having built their “budgets” on the real estate bubble, their revenues are diving as their costs, especially for “social services” skyrocket. Almost every report on the fiscal carnage going on in the US states has a variation on this theme: “The US government will inevitably have to come to the rescue”. If you think the recent EU “sovereign debt” bailout was big (and it was), wait until you see THIS one!

“Austerity” In The US Congress!:

The US “Jobs Bill”, a scaled down version of President Obama’s 2009 $US 787 Billion “stimulus package”, has hit the wall. The Democrats in Congress have been trying to pass it for months. The 2010 version is seen as “essential” as it includes an extension of weekly unemployment benefits for millions of Americans who have been out of work more than six months. On top of that, the 2010-2011 fiscal year budgets prepared by most of the 50 states built the federal money included in this bill into their calculations. On June 24, the bill did not receive the 60 votes necessary to prevent a Republican filibuster. With the latest failure to pass the bill, 1.2 million Americans are going to see their “jobless benefits” end by the end of the week and the states will NOT be getting the federal money they were counting on. For a US Congress to reject such a bill is unheard of. As we said, it’s pretty bad.

###

William (Bill) Buckler
Captain of The Privateer
email: capt@the-privateer.com

Re: Crisis really OVER???...Bank Failures up to 86...

ank Closing Information – June 25, 2010

These links contain useful information for the customers and vendors of these closed banks.

High Desert State Bank, Albuquerque, NM
First National Bank – GA, Savannah, GA
Peninsula Bank, Englewood, FL

http://www.fdic.gov/

Re: Crisis really OVER???...U.S. TROUBLE worse than EU...

46 States and growing. There is more trouble in the United States than in the EU.

The Formula has overrun the States.

States of Crisis for 46 Governments Facing Greek-Style Deficits
By Edward Robinson – Jun 25, 2010

Californians don’t see much evidence that the worst economic contraction since the Great Depression is coming to an end.

Unemployment was 12.4 percent in May, 2.7 percentage points higher than the national rate. Lawmakers gridlocked over how to close a $19 billion budget gap are weighing the termination of the main welfare program for 1.3 million poor families or borrowing more than $9 billion in the bond market. California, tied with Illinois for the lowest credit rating of any state, is diverting a rising portion of tax revenue to service debt, Bloomberg Markets magazine reports in its August issue.

Far from rebounding, the Golden State, with a $1.8 trillion economy that’s larger than Russia’s, is sinking deeper into its financial funk. And it’s not alone.

Even as the U.S. appears to be on the mend — gross domestic product has climbed three straight quarters — finances in Arizona, Illinois, New Jersey, New York and other states show few signs of improvement. Forty-six states face budget shortfalls that add up to $112 billion for the fiscal year ending next June, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a Washington research institution. State spending is 12 percent of U.S. GDP.

“States are going to have to cut back spending and raise taxes the same way Greece and Spain are,” says Dean Baker, co- director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington. “That runs counter to stimulating the economy and will put a big damper on the recovery in the latter half of this year.”

More…

Re: Crisis really OVER???... Why do I not believe ...

Thank you fastfoot for all your info, you always provide lots of material and many original sources and links.  Though to be honest, I don't always read it all, ha ha. 

Anyway, I have to agree to you willywill, for Bank of America to be so bold as to say that the crisis is over is quite the statement.  Mostly because no one believes it.  But the world is tired of hearing the same old depressing news, so I don't blame them for trying to spark some hope.  Even if it is a stretch.

Re: Crisis really OVER???... Why do I not believe ...

Iverson, I sincerely hope you are right -   we don't need a double dip!

Re: Crisis really OVER???... Why do I not believe ...

no double dip is coming. But a decade long stall in growth I could see.

Re: Crisis really OVER? U.S. CRITICAL (Deutsche Bank)

sorry about those graphs at the botom Basket9 -  I had trouble too.   Will be interesting to see what happens with the G8 & G20 Meetings this weekend in Toronto & Huntsville Ont (north of Toronto)   Should be some fireworks epecially between Germany & the U.S re spending vs non-spending & cuts in handling ongoin financial crisis worldwide.

 

Re: Crisis really OVER? U.S. CRITICAL (Deutsche Bank)

Thanks for the original links at the bottom there. Hard to read these graphs loll..

More and more it is becoming obvious the crisis is NOT over.

cheerio

Re: Crisis really OVER? U.S. CRITICAL (Deutsche Bank)

Deutsche Bank: U.S. Financial Conditions Just Collapsed Back To Crisis Levels

 

Vincent Fernando, CFA | Jun. 24, 2010, 5:36 AM | 55

Deutsche Bank has a new and improved index of U.S. financial conditions, and this index just slumped back towards the lows of our recent crisis.

Deutsche Bank's Peter Hooper:

Financial conditions appear to have worsened substantially in recent quarters based on our update of the broad index of US financial variables presented earlier this year at the US Monetary Policy Forum. In the wake of recent developments in Europe, increased stress in financial markets has pushed that index halfway back to its immediate post- Lehman crisis lows.

Chart

 

Don't miss: The 25 financial institutions most likely to default >

The index is built from an array of financial indicators such as U.S. treasury yields, the volatility index (VIX), the stock market, Broker-Dealer leverage, among others. It's a bit of a black box, but it's calculation is giving a similar reading to what we saw during the worst of the financial crisis.

The broad index shows a significantly larger net drop than other financial conditions indexes from most recent peaks partly because it gives greater weight to financial stock and flow variables and partly because it factors in the extent to which conditions have failed to respond positively to the recovery of GDP. The continued absence of private securitization of mortgages and subdued activity in ABS markets persists in weighing on broad conditions. Factors that have tended to give an offsetting lift to financial conditions have included a slowdown in the tightening of lending standards and more recently a drop in Treasury yields and associated easing of mortgage rates.

Chart

Deutsche believes this is a red flag for the economy, and explains why we should expect ultra-low interest rates from the Federal Reserve to continue for quite some time.

The worsening of financial conditions increases negative risks for economic prospects going forward and tends to delay the expected timing of Fed rate hikes. We will consider in more detail next week the implications for economic activity of the recent tightening of financial conditions.

Still, DB has a pretty benign U.S. GDP outlook going forward, so it seems they only believe the risk mentioned above is a low-probability event, or perhaps they haven't downgraded their official expectations yet.

Chart

 

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/deutsche-bank-financial-conditions-just-dropped-back-to-crisis-levels-2010-6#ixzz0rohTRb3W

Re: Crisis really OVER? Double Dip Recession?

We Cannot Afford to Double Dip

By Alex Daley, Senior Editor, Casey Research


Talk of a double-dip recession is seemingly increasing these days. Home sales have dropped like a brick since the end of the special tax breaks for buyers. Weekly job reports are showing much larger rises in unemployment claims than previously expected by whoever it is that decides what exactly is expected – 427,000 new filings in just the last weekly report.


The problem this time around, however, is not just the economy itself. The problem is that our supposed saviors are all out of tools to help the economy climb out of the deep, dark hole we now find it in. The tool belt of any monetary regime is limited to begin with. Nothing more than loosening up the debt purse strings with unrestrained interest rate policy and some additional lending from the central coffers to add to liquidity. These tools are the economic equivalent of performing reconstructive dentistry with a sledgehammer and monkey wrench, effective but not exactly precise.


And as Goldman Sachs recently pointed out to a number of its clients, the world’s leading developed nations have all but exhausted the few tools available to them:

Interest rates in the top 10 economic nations are hovering just above zero, and it’s not like they can go any lower than that, as much as banks would welcome having to pay back less than they borrow.   


And government net lending has increased so dramatically that government debt is spiraling from out-of-control to just plain ridiculous. All at a time when revenues are dropping from the slowdown and creditors, having been burned a little by Greece and afraid of what’s to come with Spain, Italy, Ireland, California, New York, and others, are starting to raise red flags to the borrow-and-spend policies of our collective governing bodies. 


For the first time in a long time, developed governments in Europe and the U.S. face the specter of sub-AAA credit ratings and rapidly rising costs of borrowing more (ratings that, frankly, had they been put in place by the inept agencies years ago when they were initially deserved may have had repercussions that would have helped us avoid many of today’s problems). Between rising borrowing costs, the already hefty budgetary burden of paying prior debt interest, and the ever-expanding rolls of government employees, legislators can hardly keep up on the bills these days, let alone inject any more into the economy.  


The irony, of course, is that by unloading a full clip from the assault rifle when trying to “save” the economy, the governments of the OECD nations have actually created a catch-22 situation. One wherein they not only have no tools left to manipulate the markets against a further slowdown, but also where they have created monetary policy so extreme that undoing it would be more disastrous than the fallout would have been had they not stepped in in the first place.


Austerity budgets from Greece and Spain have included massive layoffs of government rank and file, severe wage cuts, or both, potentially reducing tax revenues and consumer spending. California is following suit with its proposed 23,000 teacher layoffs, which are arriving on the back of 30,000 previous layoffs just last year. New Jersey is furloughing tens of thousands of state workers and capping raises. NY is furloughing 100,000 more and needs to cut $9.2 billion from the budget still.


As the walking bankrupt states and cities continue their budget slashing – down from criminally high levels such as Miami, where the average city worker nets $76,000/year compared to the $29,000 average for private citizens of the metropolis – it will only exacerbate the returning slowdown. Fewer households with cash to spend in the private sector. Rising mortgage defaults and foreclosures as the workers face the grim reality that a state paycheck doesn’t come with a 30-year guarantee these days. Declining tax revenues at all levels. And more people on the already busting-at-the-seams federal unemployment files, which remain at all-time highs.


Speaking of the U.S. federal government, their guaranties of Fannie and Freddie Mac loans are now estimated to cost anywhere from $250 billion to $1 trillion to taxpayers in the end, far above the net cost of any of the other bailout measures and potentially more than is possible to pay. The price tag is so steep, many conservatives are starting to call for repealing the institutions’ charters altogether and letting the private market have at them. The U.S. federal government is simply buried over its head in obligations.


The government is all tapped out. And yet the economy continues to slow.


If you are among the camp who wished the government would have never stepped in to begin with and called out the seemingly obvious truth that they could only worsen the situation by flailing so wildly to contain it – the double dip is coming, and you are about to be proven right and get your wish at the same time.


It’s the price we are all about to pay for letting our politicians get away with budgetary murder year after year, including letting them try to “save” us the last time around.

----

Betting on rising interest rates is a slam-dunk opportunity if there ever was one. Learn what Casey Chief Economist Bud Conrad has to say on this topic and which investments will profit once interest rates start going up. Click here for more.

Re: Crisis really OVER? California becoming a 3rd World Country


California on 'verge of system failure’

California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger

Golden State, like many others, is nearly bankrupt and desperately needs a bailout

See also:

Barrie McKenna

Los Angeles — Globe and Mail Update

Arnella Sims has seen a lot in her 34 years as a Los Angeles County court reporter, but nothing like this.

Case files piling up by the thousands, phones ringing off the hook, forced midweek courthouse closings and occasional brawls as frustrated citizens queue for hours to pay parking fines.

“People think we’re becoming a Third World country,” said Ms. Sims, 55. “They don’t understand.”

It’s a story that’s being repeated all across California – and throughout the United States – as cash-strapped state and local governments grapple with collapsed tax revenues and swelling budget gaps. Mass layoffs, slashed health and welfare services, closed parks, crumbling superhighways and ever-larger public school class sizes are all part of the new normal.

California’s fiscal hole is now so large that the state would have to liberate 168,000 prison inmates and permanently shutter 240 university and community college campuses to balance its budget in the fiscal year that begins July 1.

Think of California as Greece on the Pacific: bankrupt and desperately needing a bailout.

 

More Discussions in our Globe Investor forumsAre we in a housing bubble?Started by:Claire Neary127 repliesLast post by Rickson9
6/21/2010 12:44:59 AM

 

“We are on the verge of system failure,” warned Jean Ross, executive director of the California Budget Project, an independent think tank based in Sacramento.

None of this would matter much to anyone outside the not-so-Golden State except that California’s budget crisis is a harbinger of a grim dilemma that all Americans will soon confront. The country has built an elaborate and costly government machine, tied to a regressive tax system that can’t generate enough revenue to pay for it all.

Canadians too have a stake in all this. Dramatic cuts by state governments are threatening to derail the U.S. recovery, dampening expectations for global growth.

“This is a classic American dilemma,” explained Peter Dreier, a professor of politics and director of urban and environmental policy at Occidental College in Los Angeles. “Americans expect a lot of their government. But politicians have convinced them they’re not getting what they want.”

Americans have been “brainwashed” into believing they pay a lot of taxes, Prof. Dreier added. In fact, they are among the least-taxed people in the Western World, particularly if they’re wealthy, he said.

After unveiling a grim budget last month that scraps a popular welfare program for a million children and slashes countless other programs for the poor and elderly, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger complained that the state’s broken budget process has left him facing a “Sophie’s Choice.” That’s a reference to the story of the Polish Jew forced by the Nazis to choose between saving her son or her daughter from the Auschwitz gas chambers.

Experts say the U.S. government will inevitably have to come to the rescue, using its borrowing clout to save the state from near-bankruptcy or devastating service cuts. Do nothing, and the entire U.S. economy could be put at risk. California, like the country’s banks, may be too big to fail.

California is looking at a gap of $19-billion (U.S.) this year and $37-billion next year on a roughly $125-billion-a-year budget. Local governments, including the City of Los Angeles, are in similarly dire financial straits and are now scrambling to shed workers and services.

 

Red ink, from sea to shining sea

Red ink, from sea to shining sea

 

“We have to get some federal money,” argued Ms. Ross of the California Budget Project. “The impact [of the Schwarzenegger budget] would be enough to slow down the U.S. economy. It would be bad for the U.S. and, arguably, bad for the world to do the shock therapy approach.”

And California isn’t alone in angling for a bailout. U.S. states are facing shortfalls totalling nearly $300-billion in 2010 and 2011; they also must wrestle with hundreds of billions more in unfunded pension obligations to their workers. “There are a few Greek crises brewing among the United States of America,” said economist Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research Inc.

The task is made all the more difficult because California and virtually all other states are barred by legislation from running operating deficits, forcing them to balance their budgets annually by slashing spending, raising taxes or both. Typically, states can only borrow short-term funds, or for capital projects.

Billionaire Warren Buffett, who advised U.S. President Barack Obama during his White House run, suggested recently that a Washington bailout of California and other troubled states is inevitable. How, he wondered, can Washington deny California after saying yes to General Motors, AIG and dozens of banks.

“I don’t know how you would tell a state you’re going to stiff-arm them with all the bailouts of corporations,” Mr. Buffett said.

The alternative for many state and local governments may be default. Mr. Buffett said many state and municipal bonds are only triple-A rated because investors assume there’s a federal backstop. “If the federal government won’t step in to help them, who knows what [the bonds] are,” he said.

An Investor's Guide to Understanding the Economy by Gary Rabbior:

California’s credit rating is already the lowest of all 50 states.

How California, the largest and once most-prosperous state, got in this mess is a story decades in the making. It began with middle-class angst and a property tax revolt in the sprawling suburbs of Los Angeles. The movement would eventually sweep the country in the inflation-ravaged economy of the late 1970s, leaving government unable to pay for many of the services and entitlements people now take for granted.

John Serrano Jr., a social worker, was frustrated that he had to move his family out of East L.A. to find decent public schools for his children. He would eventually lend his name to a class-action lawsuit that would go all the way to the California Supreme Court. In a series of decisions, the court found the state’s school finance system to be unconstitutional for relying too heavily on local property taxes, which vary widely in poor and wealthy neighbourhoods. For example, a school in tony Beverly Hills would often get more than twice the funds per student than one in poor East L.A.

The landmark case would forever change the fiscal landscape of California, and many other states, shifting the financial burden of kindergarten to Grade 12 education from local to state governments, but not the tax base. K-12 education is now the State of California’s single largest expense, soaking up roughly a third of its budget.

A tax revolt would further tilt the tax burden to the state and deprive local governments of their most stable funding source – property taxes.

In the mid-1970s, California property taxes were soaring, along with real estate values, and incomes couldn’t keep pace. The result was a campaign, financed by L.A.-area apartment landlords, that culminated in the now-infamous Proposition 13 ballot initiative in 1978.

Prop. 13 rolled back and capped both residential and commercial property tax rates at 1975 levels. And it virtually guaranteed that only a revolution would reverse the measure. Proposition 13 imposed a two-thirds majority requirement for all tax bills and required local voters to approve all municipal tax increases.

“California put itself in a straitjacket that it hasn’t been able to get out of,” Occidental College’s Prof. Dreier explained.

In the years since Prop. 13, California has come to the rescue of local governments, taking on ever-greater responsibility for schools, low-income health care and welfare. And it has paid for all that with volatile sales and income tax revenue, making it tough to balance its budget when the economy stalls.

“A lot of people predicted doom and gloom in 1978. It just took a long time,” said John Tanner, executive director of Local 721 of the Service Employees International Union, which represents 85,000 government workers in Los Angeles and throughout Southern California.

Prop. 13, according to Mr. Tanner, has put schools, courts, parks and a raft of other government services in a downward spiral. “We are at an unacceptable place right now,” he said.

Perhaps no group of workers feels more targeted in the crisis than teachers. U.S. Education Secretary Arne Duncan has warned that without money from Congress as many as 300,000 teachers nationwide could lose their jobs to state budget cuts, including several thousand in California.

“It’s not easy being me these days,” said A.J. Duffy, president of the United Teachers of Los Angeles. “I have 45,000 members looking to me to save their jobs.”

His union represents teachers and other employees at 700-plus L.A. schools, where as many as 1,200 jobs are threatened.

“We’re destroying education as we know it,” Mr. Duffy lamented. “My teachers will do a great job no matter what. But it’s harder and harder to deliver the quality of education we’ve had.”

California public schools were once a beacon for the country. Now, the state ranks dead-last in student-teacher ratios, 45th in per-student spending and 36th in high school graduation.

The tax structure may be badly flawed. But even union activists acknowledge that repealing Prop. 13 outright is probably a non-starter. Recent polls show support for keeping a lid on property taxes remains strong, in spite of the budget crisis.

Experts say tax reform is the only option for California, short of a massive and unprecedented shrinking of government. And that requires an “open conversation” between voters and their elected leaders, and almost certainly higher taxes, according to Ms. Ross, the economist.

If you want good schools, you have to pay for them,” she said. “Cutting taxes doesn’t raise revenue.”

That kind of talk angers Kris Vosburgh, executive director of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, named after the L.A. homeowner who led the Prop. 13 campaign and dedicated to ensuring it’s never overturned. He said California is a high-tax state with generously paid government workers, and recession-weary taxpayers have no money to pay more.

“The bank is empty,” Mr. Vosburgh complained.

“We have tried to be all things to all people and we can’t afford to do that any more.”

But in California, and elsewhere, the price will be steep – in lost jobs and vanishing services.

Carliose Lane, 37, an animal licensing official for the City of Los Angeles, knows the city, and the state, are in a budget bind. But he can’t understand why he and the city’s entire team of animal fee collectors must pay the price with their jobs. Who, he wondered, will collect the money that pays for the city’s shelters and pet control operations after he’s laid off on July 1.

“Laying me off isn’t going to solve the city’s budget problems,” said Mr. Lane, whose $32,300-a-year salary helps support a wife and three children. “It will make them worse.”

Re: Crisis really OVER? ACT 2 just beginning (George Soros)


Soros Says ‘We Have Just Entered Act II’ of Crisis (Update2)

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By Zoe Schneeweiss and Andrew MacAskill

June 10 (Bloomberg) -- Billionaire investor George Soros
said “we have just entered Act II” of the crisis as Europe’s
fiscal woes worsen and governments are pressured to curb budget
deficits that may push the global economy back into recession.

“The collapse of the financial system as we know it is
real, and the crisis is far from over,” Soros said today at a
conference in Vienna. “Indeed, we have just entered Act II of
the drama.”

Soros, 79, said the current situation in the world economy
is “eerily” reminiscent of the 1930s with governments under
pressure to narrow their budget deficits at a time when the
economic recovery is weak.

Concern that Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis may spread sent
the euro to a four-year low against the dollar on June 7 and has
wiped out more than $4 trillion from global stock markets this
year. Europe’s debt-ridden nations have to raise almost 2
trillion euros ($2.4 trillion) within the next three years to
refinance, according to Bank of America Corp.

“When the financial markets started losing confidence in
the credibility of sovereign debt, Greece and the euro have
taken center stage, but the effects are liable to be felt
worldwide,” Soros said.

Soros gained fame in the 1990s when he reportedly made $1
billion correctly betting against the British pound. He also
wagered that Germany’s mark would appreciate after the collapse
of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and that Japanese stocks would start
to fall in the same year. His firm, Soros Fund Management LLC,
manages about $25 billion.

Credit default swaps, which aim to protect bondholders
against the risk of a default, are dangerous and a “license to
kill,” Soros said today. CDSs should only be allowed if there
is an insurable interest, he said.

To contact the reporters responsible for this story:
Zoe Schneeweiss
at
zschneeweiss@bloomberg.net;
Andrew MacAskill
in London at
amacaskill@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: June 10, 2010 12:03 EDT

Re: Crisis really OVER???.Greece urged to give up Euro & default

Greece urged to give up euro
Robert Watts
May
30, 2010

THE Greek government has been advised by British economists to
leave the euro and default on its €300 billion (£255 billion) debt to
save its economy.

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), a
London-based consultancy, has warned Greek ministers they will be unable
to escape their debt trap without devaluing their own currency to boost
exports. The only way this can happen is if Greece returns to its own
currency.

Greek politicians have played down the prospect of abandoning the
euro, which could lead to the break-up of the single currency.

Speaking from Athens yesterday, Doug McWilliams, chief executive
of the CEBR, said: “Leaving the euro would mean the new currency will
fall by a minimum of 15%. But as the national debt is valued in euros,
this would raise the debt from its current level of 120% of GDP to 140%
overnight.

“So part of the package of leaving the euro must be to convert the
debt into the new domestic currency unilaterally.”

More…

Re: Crisis really OVER???... Why do I not believe ...

Still trying to read through all the articles here. Thank you Fastfoot there is some goo stuff here.

Re: Crisis really OVER- Greece just the "Tip of the Iceberg"


Greek Crisis Is ‘Tip of Iceberg’ in Euro Region, Roubini Says

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By Svenja O’Donnell

May 18 (Bloomberg) -- The crisis engulfing the euro area
is
not over yet as Greece remains the “tip of an iceberg,” New
York University professor Nouriel Roubini said.

“It’s not over,” Roubini said in an interview with
BBC radio broadcast today. “What we’re facing right now in the
eurozone is a second stage of a typical financial crisis.”

The European Union’s 750 billion-euro ($931 billion) rescue
package to stop contagion from Greece hasn’t calmed the markets
while questions remain about whether governments are strong
enough to implement the austerity measures required, Roubini
said. The European Union said today it has transferred the first
instalment of emergency loans to Greece, one day before 8.5
billion euros of bonds come due.

Markets remain concerned about the solvency of some
European countries as there is “significant economic and
financial trouble in the eurozone,” Roubini told the BBC’s
“Today” program. The recent riots in Greece in response to
fiscal cuts have fueled doubts about some European governments’
ability to solve these problems, he said.

“There’s a question mark whether we can be confident the
government is going to be strong enough to do the fiscal
austerity,” Roubini said. “If these packages of austerity are
going to be implemented markets are going to stabilize.”

Roubini also said the U.K.’s new Conservative-Liberal
Democrat coalition government has yet to be tested. The
government will spell out how it plans to cut Britain’s record
deficit in an emergency budget on June 22.

“We’ll see when things are going to have to happen, when
the tough decision is going to have to be made on revenues, on
spending, whether that coalition is going to remain strong or
not,” he said.

To contact the reporter on this story:
Svenja O’Donnell
in London at
sodonnell@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: May 18, 2010 04:48 EDT

Re: Crisis really OVER- U.S. helps bailout - Greece threatens


Greece Considering Legal Action Against U.S. Banks for Crisis

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By Timothy R. Homan

May 16 (Bloomberg) -- Greece is considering taking legal
action against U.S. investment banks that might have contributed
to the country’s debt crisis, Prime Minister George Papandreou
said.

“I wouldn’t rule out that this may be a recourse,”
Papandreou said, in response to questions about the role of U.S.
banks in the crisis, in an interview on CNN’s “Fareed Zakaria
GPS.” The program, scheduled for broadcast today, was taped on
May 13. Neither Papandreou nor Zakaria mentioned any banks by
name.

U.S. stocks fell and the euro slumped on concern that
Europe wouldn’t be able to contain the debt crisis stemming from
Greece. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index
declined 1.9 percent May
14, while the euro fell below $1.24 for the first time since
November 2008.

Papandreou said the decision on whether to go after U.S.
banks will be made after a Greek parliamentary investigation
into the cause of the crisis.

“Greece will look into the past and see how things went,”
Papandreou said. “There are similar investigations going on in
other countries and in the United States. This is where I think,
yes, the financial sector, I hear the words fraud and lack of
transparency. So yes, yes, there is great responsibility here.”

Speculators

In the days leading up to the May 10 announcement of a loan
package worth almost $1 trillion to halt the spread of Greece’s
fiscal woes, European Union regulators were examining whether
speculators manipulated the prices of bonds and equities and
contributed to the crisis.

The Committee of European Securities Regulators said on May
7 it was investigating “exceptional volatility” in the markets
and would work with other regulators, including the U.S.
Securities and Exchange Commission, as part of a coordinated
clampdown.

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude
Trichet
said
May 6 that he was concerned about speculation in bond markets
using credit default swaps. “By first buying the CDS and then
trying to affect market sentiment by going short on the
underlying bond, investors can make large profits,” he said.

Credit-default swaps are derivatives that pay the buyer
face value if a borrower -- a country or a company -- defaults.
In exchange, the swap seller gets the underlying securities or
the cash equivalent. Traders in naked credit-default swaps buy
insurance on bonds they don’t own.

In the CNN interview, Papandreou said many in the
international community have engaged in “Greek bashing” and
find it easy “to scapegoat Greece.” He said Greeks “are a
hard-working people. We are a proud people.”

“We have made our mistakes,” Papandreou said. “We are
living up to this responsibility. But at the same time, give us
a chance. We’ll show you.”

To contact the reporter on this story:
Timothy R. Homan
in Washington at
thoman1@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: May 16, 2010 00:00 EDT

Re: Crisis really OVER??? Germany to leave E.M.U.???

Morgan Stanley fears German exit from EMU

Morgan Stanley has warned that the Greek debt crisis is setting off a
chain of
events that may prompt German withdrawal from the eurozone, with grim
implications for investors caught off-guard.

 

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Published: 6:12PM BST 15 Apr 2010

Comments 112
| Comment
on this article

Greeks are rush to test their luck in the Joker lottery with its<br />
?19m jackpot as the country's borrowing rate shot up again above 7pc.

Greeks are rush to test their luck in the
Joker lottery with its ?19m jackpot as the country's borrowing rate shot
up again above 7pc.

Photo: AFP

"The backstop package for Greece
and the ECB's climb-down on its collateral rules set a bad
precedent for
other euro area states and make it more likely that the euro area
degenerates into a zone of fiscal profligacy, currency weakness, and
higher
inflationary pressures over time," said Joachim Fels, head of
research,
in a note to clients.

The US bank said a bail-out for Greece may be necessary to avoid a
crisis for
Europe's financial system, but warned that it also "sows the seeds for
potentially even bigger problems further down the road".

 

Related Articles

Mr Fels said weak states cannot easily leave EMU because they would pay a
stiff penalty in higher rates, would be stuck with euro debt
contracts, and
might need controls to stem capital flight. It is a different calculus
for
Germany, which would see lower rates and might view EMU exit as the
only way
to ensure monetary stability.

"Obviously, we have not reached the end game yet. However, with the
latest developments, such a break-up scenario has clearly become more
likely. The risk is far from negligible and the consequences for
financial
markets would be very severe. Investors ignore the break-up risk at
their
peril," he said.

Jürgen Stark, the European Central Bank's chief economist, vowed on
Thursday
to resist pressure to help spendthrift governments out of their
troubles by
resorting to easy money. "Let me stress that any call to reduce the
real value of public debt through higher inflation will be firmly
opposed by
the ECB," he said.

Dr Stark said the global credit crisis is starting to metamorphose into a
deeper solvency threat to highly-indebted states. "We may already have
entered into the next phase of the crisis: a sovereign debt crisis
following
on the financial and economic crisis. Most governments in the advanced
countries will exit from recession with the highest deficit and
debt-to-GDP
ratios recorded in times of peace. It is essential to prevent public
finances from running out of control," he said.

Dr Stark said public debt will reach 88pc of GDP next year in the
eurozone and
the UK, 100pc in the US and 200pc in Japan. "There is no doubt that
fiscal policies have been put on a path that is not sustainable," he
said.

He did not name the eurozone's main sinners, but his warnings are
clearly
directed at Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy, and Ireland. The refusal
to let
EMU-wide inflation creep up means that these countries will have to
carry
out "internal devaluations" - or deep wage cuts - to bring their
economies back into line with North Europe. Debt costs must be
serviced from
a shrinking economic base. Critics - including some in IMF circles -
retort
that such a policy risks pushing these states into debt-deflation
spiral and
may not work.

 

Re: Crisis really OVER??? State Debt Woes Escalating

State debt woes grow too big to camouflage

Economist: ‘When
an accident is waiting to happen, it eventually does’

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  State
budget battles

March 29:
Gov. Edward Rendell, D-Pa., discusses the budget problems facing
the states.

CNBC

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crunch

March 11:
Digging into California's debt, with Bill Lockyer, State of
California State Treasurer and CNBC's Jane Wells.

CNBC

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in China

Feb.
9:
Future Shock: Beijing is America's number one banker, holding $790
billion of U.S. debt. NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports.

Nightly News

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By Mary Williams Walsh

updated 2:02
p.m. ET,
Tues., March. 30, 2010

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California, New York and
other states are showing many of the same signs of debt overload that
recently took Greece to the brink — budgets that will not balance,
accounting that masks debt, the use of derivatives to plug holes, and
armies of retired public workers who are counting on benefits that are
proving harder and harder to pay.

And states are responding in sometimes desperate
ways, raising concerns that they, too, could face a debt crisis.

New Hampshire was
recently ordered by its State Supreme Court to put back $110 million
that it took from a medical malpractice insurance pool to balance its
budget. Colorado tried, so far unsuccessfully, to grab a $500 million
surplus from Pinnacol Assurance, a state workers’ compensation insurer
that was privatized in 2002. It wanted the money for its university
system and seems likely to get a lesser amount, perhaps $200 million.

Connecticut has tried to issue its own accounting
rules. Hawaii has inaugurated a four-day school week. California
accelerated its corporate income tax this year, making companies pay 70
percent of their 2010 taxes by June 15. And many states have balanced
their budgets with federal health care dollars
that Congress has not yet appropriated.

'On the edge'
Some
economists fear the states have a potentially bigger problem than their
recession-induced budget woes. If investors become reluctant to buy the
states’ debt, the result could be a credit squeeze, not entirely
different from the financial strains in Europe, where markets were
reluctant to refinance billions in Greek debt.

“If we ran into a
situation where one state got into trouble, they’d be bailed out six
ways from Tuesday,” said Kenneth S. Rogoff, an economics professor at
Harvard and a former research director of the International Monetary
Fund. “But if we have a situation where there’s slow growth, and a bunch
of cities and states are on the edge, like in Europe, we will have
trouble.”

California’s
stated debt — the value of all its bonds outstanding — looks
manageable, at just 8 percent of its total economy. But California has
big unstated debts, too. If the fair value of the shortfall in
California’s big pension fund is counted, for instance, the state’s debt
burden more than quadruples, to 37 percent of its economic output,
according to one calculation.

The state’s economy will also be weighed down by the
ballooning federal debt, though California does not have to worry about
those payments as much as its taxpaying citizens and businesses do.

Unstated debts pose a
bigger problem to states with smaller economies. If Rhode Island were a
country, the fair value of its pension debt would push it outside the
maximum permitted by the euro zone, which tries to limit government debt
to 60 percent of gross domestic product, according to Andrew Biggs, an
economist with the American Enterprise Institute who has been analyzing
state debt. Alaska would not qualify either.

State officials say a
Greece-style financial crisis is a complete nonissue for them, and the
bond markets so far seem to agree. All 50 states have investment-grade
credit ratings, with California the lowest, and even California is still
considered “average,” according to Moody’s Investors Service. The last
state that defaulted on its bonds, Arkansas, did so during the Great
Depression.

 

Goldman Sachs, in a
research report last week, acknowledged the pension issue but concluded
the states were very unlikely to default on their debt and noted the
states had 30 years to close pension shortfalls.

Even though about $5
billion of municipal bonds are in default today, the vast majority were
issued by small local authorities in boom-and-bust locations like
Florida, said Matt Fabian, managing director of Municipal Market
Advisors, an independent consulting firm. The issuers raised money to
pay for projects like sewer connections and new roads in subdivisions
that collapsed in the subprime mortgage disaster.

The states, he said, are
different. They learned a lesson from New York City, which got into
trouble in the 1970s by financing its operations with short-term debt
that had to be rolled over again and again. When investors suddenly lost
confidence, New York was left empty-handed. To keep that from happening
again, Mr. Fabian said, most states require short-term debt to be fully
repaid the same year it is issued.

Forceful measures
Some
states have taken even more forceful measures to build creditor
confidence. New York State has a trustee that intercepts tax revenues
and makes some bond payments before the state can get to the money.
California has a “continuous appropriation” for debt payments, so
bondholders know they will get their interest even when the budget is
hamstrung.

The
states can also take refuge in America’s federalist system. Thus, if
California were to get into hot water, it could seek assistance in
Washington, and probably come away with some funds. Already, the federal
government is spending hundreds of millions helping the states issue
their bonds.

Professor
Rogoff, who has spent most of his career studying global debt crises,
has combed through several centuries’ worth of records with a fellow
economist, Carmen M. Reinhart of the University of Maryland, looking for
signs that a country was about to default.

One finding was that countries “can default on
stunningly small amounts of debt,” he said, perhaps just one-fourth of
what stopped Greece in its tracks. “The fact that the states’ debts
aren’t as big as Greece’s doesn’t mean it can’t happen.”

Also, officials and their
lenders often refused to admit they had a debt problem until too late.

“When an accident is
waiting to happen, it eventually does,” the two economists wrote in
their book, titled “This Time Is Different” — the words often on the
lips of policy makers just before a debt bomb exploded. “But the exact
timing can be very difficult to guess, and a crisis that seems imminent
can sometimes take years to ignite.”


CONTINUED
: Austerity measures

1 |
2
| Next
>

Re: Crisis really OVER??? 16M unemployed - benefits taxed!

How long should we help the unemployed?
unemployment_100422.gi.top.jpgUnemployed
Colorado residents attend a boot camp to get tips on writing resumes
and interviewing.

By Tami
Luhby
, senior writer

NEW YORK
(CNNMoney.com) -- Two years of unemployment benefits just isn't enough
for some jobless Americans.

Though Congress has extended
unemployment insurance to an unprecedented 99 weeks, the safety net is
not proving sufficient for hundreds of thousands of people who say they
simply cannot find a job in this weak economy

cnnad_createAd("270381","http://ads.cnn.com/html.ng/site=cnn_money&cnn_money_position=220x200_ctr&cnn_money_rollup=quigo&params.styles=fs","200","220");

Up
to a million people could find themselves with neither a paycheck nor
an unemployment check by year's end, according to preliminary estimates
by one advocacy group.

These folks are begging lawmakers to extend
the duration of benefits into the triple digits. Scores have emailed
CNNMoney.com, detailing their desperation. But there's no movement
currently in Congress to add more weeks.

"People will endure
extreme hardship," said Andrew Stettner, deputy director of the National
Employment Law Project. "We can't just let everyone fall off of this
cliff."

But a growing chorus of economists and lawmakers say
another extension would be the worst thing for the unemployed. It would
likely further delay these Americans' re-entry into the workforce.

"If
you are subsidized to stay out of the workforce, many people will,"
said Alan Reynolds, senior fellow at The Cato Institute, a libertarian
think tank.

Also, any additional extensions will cost big bucks,
money that Washington, D.C., doesn't have at the moment. The federal
government is expected to spend $156 billion on jobless benefits in
fiscal 2010, which began Oct. 1.

Long-term
unemployment

One thing all sides agree on is that the Great
Recession has wreaked havoc on the job market. Even though the economy
is creeping back to health, employers have not resumed hiring. That
leaves 16 million people without jobs, 11 million of whom are receiving
unemployment benefits.

Nearly a quarter of all jobless have been
out of work for a year or more, the highest rate since records started
being kept shortly after World War II, according to the Pew Fiscal
Analysis Initiative. That's equivalent to the entire state of
Connecticut being unemployed.

Responding to this crisis, Congress
has extended federally funded unemployment benefits on several
occasions. So now the jobless receive the standard 26 weeks of
state-paid benefits and then can apply for up to 73 additional weeks of
federally funded unemployment insurance.

0:00
/1:10Unemployment
benefits taxed too
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This
far surpasses the previous record for unemployment benefits, which
totaled 65 weeks during the recession of the mid-1970s. Yet advocates
want Congress to once again extend the duration of benefits.
Unemployment insurance, they argue, keeps people from defaulting on
their mortgages and turning to public services, such as welfare and
emergency housing. The payments keep food on the table and the lights
on.

For M.K. Reed, the $265 weekly check allowed her to pay the
mortgage and utilities in her Jefferson, Ga., mobile home. Reed, single
and turning 60 in the fall, lost her job in the real estate industry two
years ago.

Since then, she has applied to hundreds of positions
in the public and private sectors and just got certified as a phlebotomy
technician, hoping a job drawing blood will land her a spot in the
healthier medical industry. Reed has been trying to sell her house so
she can move to a state with a better economy, but she's had no takers.

Despite
her efforts, she's had only four interviews and no offers. Her jobless
benefits ran out last week.

Now desperate and out of savings,
she's putting her mother's and grandmother's furniture, china and
silverware on eBay, which she thinks is worth $10,000. She'll be lucky
if she clears $1,000, she said. After that, she doesn't know what she'll
do.

"I'm just trying to sell everything I've got to hang on
here," said Reed.

Helping and hurting the
economy

Unemployment checks have also helped revive the
economy, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics.
The jobless tend to spend every dollar they receive.

"While
consumer spending has since notably improved, it remains fragile and
would likely weaken again if emergency UI benefits were not extended,"
he testified before Congress recently. "The recovery would struggle to
evolve into an expansion as anticipated."

Others, however, argue
that the reason there are so many people still out of work is because
they have unemployment benefits to fall back on. If they weren't getting
a weekly check, they'd be forced to get a job.

"People think that
when benefits run out, most people will still be unemployed," Reynolds
said. But "most will accept jobs that are less than ideal shortly before
benefits run out."

Two
years and still no job

Though
Labor Department statistics say there are 5.5 job seekers for every
opening, Reynolds said there is work available if people are willing to
relocate or take jobs in a different field.

Unemployment benefits
can actually hurt people's chances of finding work, he said. Their
skills get rusty and they have more trouble explaining the long gap on
their resumes.

Even if Congress does extend benefits one more
time, the jobless should expect that one to be the last, said Phillip
Swagel, business professor at Georgetown University and former Treasury
Department chief economist under President George W. Bush.

The
jobs picture is starting to brighten, Swagel said. The use of temporary
workers is up and employees' weekly hours are up -- both signs that
companies should start hiring soon.

"We're getting close to the
point where there shouldn't be more extensions," Swagel said. To top of page

Re: Crisis really OVER??? Greek Math spells disaster, default


Greek Math Adds Up to Delusion, Disaster, Default: Mark Gilbert

Commentary by Mark Gilbert

April 22 (Bloomberg) -- Call out the lifeboats and admit
that you are sunk without a $60 billion rescue package. Or, try
to fund yourself in the capital markets, and risk coming home
empty-handed. Who would want to be Greece?

Many of the nation’s problems are all too obvious. Here,
though, are some of the issues lurking just beneath the surface,
waiting to trash returns for investors who might be tempted to
buy Greek debt at record
yield premiums
to German bunds.

Respecting Your Elders

As soon as that first euro arrives in Greece’s coffers from
either the European Commission or the International Monetary
Fund, those existing Greek bonds you own probably slip back one
place in the line of who gets paid first by the nation. The more
they lend, the longer you might have to wait to be reimbursed.

And the market is pushing Greece over the cliff into the
safety net. At a bill auction this week, investors demanded 3.65
percent to lend to Greece for just three months, double what
they accepted at the previous sale in January. The
cost of 10-
year money
rose to 8 percent, up from 5.75 percent at the start
of the year. So three-year loans from the EC at 5 percent start
to look irresistible.

In technical terms, once Greece signs up for help your debt
gets subordinated to the rescue package; the EC and the IMF are
likely to demand what’s called seniority for their loans, and
there’s not a darned thing you can do about it. Do you really
want two gangs of bureaucrats standing between you and your
money when push comes to shove?

Suicide Is Painless, It Brings on Many Changes

Greece’s potential rescuers say they might hold its feet
even closer to the economic fire in return for aid. Europe might
“link the payout of the tranches to the implementation of
economic-policy goals,” German Deputy Finance Minister Joerg
Asmussen
said this week. “There is a need now to be more
specific in relation to fiscal-adjustment measures for 2011 and
2012,” EC spokesman Amadeu Altafaj
said.

Maybe Greece is tired of standing in the naughty corner
being jeered and pointed at by its euro classmates. It might
restructure its debt instead, which is a polite way of saying it
could tell bondholders they’re not going to be paid as much as
they expected, nor will those repayments arrive on time.

Default doesn’t carry much of a stigma, if it ever did.
Russia, which reneged on its obligations in 1998, pitched five-
and 10-year dollar bonds at its lowest-ever premium to
Treasuries this week. Even Argentina is holding a $20 billion
debt swap that will slash its borrowing costs, nine years after
defaulting on $95 billion of loans.

A few years in the market wilderness might do Greece some
good, instead of being held to ransom by international bond
vigilantes every time it needs to refinance maturing debt. Do
haircuts and rescheduling figure in that horizon analysis you’re
running on whether to buy Greek bonds?

Thin End of a $115 Billion Wedge

How much will Greece end up needing once it concedes defeat
and triggers the aid package? Bundesbank President Axel Weber
told German lawmakers this week it will probably be more than
the 30 billion euros ($40 billion) pledged by the European
Union, according to two people present at his briefing. (Does
anyone notice a hint of German disapproval running through the
remarks made by officials from Europe’s biggest economy?)

Greece owes bondholders about 25 billion euros this year,
according to Bloomberg data. That rises to an additional 31
billion euros next year and 32 billion euros in 2012. If it
takes the three-year money on offer under the rescue package as
currently designed, it just pushes its refinancing risk out
until 2013.

Suppose the markets remain closed to Greece this year, next
year and the year after. Do you think those Greek bonds you own
will (a) surge in value as their rarity increases (b) drop like
stones as your fixed-income peers realize how hard it will be to
unhook Greece from the life-support machine of bailout funding?

We’re on a Roadshow to Nowhere

Still comfy owning those Greek bonds, even though the cost
of buying protection against nonpayment in the credit-default
swap market leaped to its most expensive ever this week? How
about if we spice things up a little by stirring some foreign-
currency worries into the mix?

Greece plans a roadshow to court investors in the U.S.,
with the hope of finding enough demand to help fund its deficit
by selling dollar bonds. Anyone who bought Greece’s euro-
denominated 10-year bonds when they went on sale in March,
though, now owns something worth about 88 percent of face value.
U.S. fund managers might prove less than enthusiastic about the
combination of Hellenic credit worries and the risk of a euro
collapse making it even harder for the nation to pay its debts.

What do you think happens to the value of those euro-
denominated bonds you own if Petros
Christodoulou
, director-
general of Greece’s Public Debt Management Agency, flies back
from New York with an empty briefcase?

(Mark Gilbert,
author of “Complicit: How Greed and
Collusion Made the Credit Crisis Unstoppable,” is the London
bureau chief and a columnist for Bloomberg News. The opinions
expressed are his own.)

Click on “Send Comment” in the sidebar display to send a
letter to the editor.

To contact the writer of this column:
Mark Gilbert
in London at
magilbert@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: April 21, 2010 19:00 EDT

Re: Crisis really OVER??? Goldman Real Estate Fund lost 98%

Goldman Real Estate Fund Lost 98 Cents on the
Dollar

Published:
Friday, 16 Apr 2010 | 4:41 AM ET

Text Size

By: Henny Sender, Financial
Times

Whitehall Street International, Goldman
Sachs’
international real estate investment fund, has lost
almost all of its $1.8 billion of equity following soured property
investments in the U.S., Germany and Japan, according to the fund’s
estimates.

Goldman Sachs Building

By the end of 2009, the
fund was down to its last $30 million, a paper loss of about 98 cents on
the dollar, an annual report sent to investors last month said. The
report said that Goldman cnbc_comboQuoteMove('popup_GS_ID0ECG15839609');[GS 
160.70 
 
-23.57 
(-12.79%)

]

cnbc_quoteComponent_init_getData("GS","WSODQ_COMPONENT_GS_ID0ECG15839609","WSODQ","true","ID0ECG15839609","off","false","inLineQuote");
was Whitehall’s largest investor, with a commitment of
$436 million. Last year, Goldman took a loss of $1.76 billion from all
its real estate principal investments.

The Whitehall disclosure is the latest in a string
of losses reported by bank-owned property funds that relied on debt, and
it comes as the Obama administration is seeking to restrict banks’
investment in private equity funds.

It was revealed earlier
this week that Morgan Stanley’s cnbc_comboQuoteMove('popup_MS_ID0EDFAC15839609');[MS 
29.16 
 
-1.72 
(-5.57%)

]

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most recent $8.8 billion international
property fund will lose as much as two-thirds of its value.

The Whitehall fund,
raised in 2005, invested more than half its capital in the U.S., and was
also heavily exposed to Germany. While the drop in property values was
dramatic in these two countries, losses at the Goldman fund were
exacerbated by its dependence on debt.

The letter to investors acknowledges the “negative
impact of leveraged investing in a market in which estimated asset
values have declined materially”.

“The approach of lenders and regulatory agencies
towards upcoming troubled debt maturity issues may meaningfully impact
the fund’s ability to hold assets until markets recover or to sell
select non-core assets in the near future,” the letter said. “Many banks
have been unwilling or unable to extend credit or refinance without
steep concessions or additional equity.”

 


The Whitehall fund has a
long life and is not set to end until 2014 at the earliest. So it is
still possible that values will improve.

“Our continued focus on restructuring opportunities
within our portfolio will enhance the prospects for recovering equity
for the fund and our investors,” the letter adds. The fund has
distributed $45 million, or 3 percent of committed capital, to
investors.

Goldman
was able to restructure the debt on several of the fund’s investments,
including a $558 million recapitalization of Valencia, a Japanese real
estate company. It also has restructured several investments in Germany,
including a retail portfolio in Berlin.

 


Goldman has handed the
keys to creditors and locked in losses on other investments, including
Daiwa House in Japan and several investments in Germany.

The letter says that the
fund’s financial statements received a qualified audit opinion for the
year, though “this does not affect our ability to execute the fund’s
current strategy and the ultimate recovery period for the fund”.

© The Financial Times Ltd 2010. "FT" and
"Financial Times" are trademarks of the Financial Times.

Re: Crisis really OVER??? Prof. Fekete - "Armageddon Signal"

Professor Fekete and the Armageddon
Signal

Darryl Robert Schoon
Posted Apr 13, 2010

When the end comes, it will be a
surprise even to those who expect it.

When Professor Antal E.
Fekete began lecturing on Austrian economics in Hungary in the spring
of 2007, the global economy had not yet experienced the collapse which
Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises had predicted over a half century
before, to wit,

There is no means of avoiding the final
collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative
is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary
abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total
catastrophe of the currency system involved. - Human Action, a Treatise
on Economics
, Ludwig von Mises (Fox & Wilkes, 4th rev. ed.,
1963)

A quarter century of uninterrupted and
unprecedented credit expansion begun by the US in the 1980s, however,
came to an abrupt halt months later in August 2007 when global credit
markets froze, precipitating an economic crisis the severity of which
surprised all except those who expected it.

Among those who foresaw the crisis was
Peter Warburton. In 1999, Warburton warned in his extraordinary book, Debt
& Delusion
, that changes in our financial system masked deep
maladjustments that would someday make themselves known, that rapidly
rising valuations would readjust, perhaps violently, and that we were
particularly blind in recognizing the dangers which confronted us.

Warburton was not an Austrian economist
who believed in the inevitable collapse of excessive credit driven
markets. Warburton instead believed that debt-based money and credit
aggregates controlled by central bankers were critical components of
modern functioning economies.

In an article in 2001, Warburton wrote:

We called ourselves international
monetarists then and we had a model that determined the inflation rate
from the growth of money stock per unit of output, with long and
variable lags… We felt sure that if the authorities could regulate the
growth of the money supply, all would be well.

He then added,

How wrong we were.

WARBURTON’S CONTRIBUTION

Warburton’s contribution to the current
economic dialogue derives from his belief in that which he now
critiques. Warburton’s blinding insights are those of one who was
himself previously blind.

Warburton’s Debt & Delusion,
published in 1999, is a seminal work explaining what went wrong and
where. His explanation of the changed role of banks and government in
the issuance of credit is uniquely insightful; and, whereas Austrian
economics offers a wide-angle view of the present crisis, Warburton’s Debt
& Delusion
gives what only a jeweler’s loupe can provide, a
close-up focus that explains and exposes the blind spots of those who
still purport to see.

the leading economies..have fallen
victim to a dangerous illusion, related to the anarchic development of
global capital and credit markets. … the thesis is very straightforward:
that both citizens and governments have become heavily addicted to
borrowing and no longer care about the consequences.

Seen through
Warburton’s eyes, the delusions of modern economists are many, such as
central banking’s believed containment of inflation, what economists
such as Paul Samuelson and Ben Bernanke call “the great moderation”,
which is, in fact, but a communal delusion; a collective and fatal error
the consequences of which have yet to be fully experienced.

PUBLISHING THE TRUTH
A THREAT TO THEIR KINGDOM

Published in 1999, the first printing of Debt
& Delusion
sold out, befitting a work of elegantly written
prose and unique insights. In the book industry, it is expected that a
sold out first printing is followed by a second and a third and so on
until public demand is satisfied.

For those knowledgeable about book
selling, the currently failing model is based on costly first time
marketing and distribution efforts by publishers who hope their initial
costs will be recouped. If so, publishers can then sell additional
printings to a waiting audience. But although Debt & Delusion
sold out, it was never reprinted by its original publisher.

Instead, Debt & Delusion was to
share the fate of another book of significant monetary importance, The
of Future of Money
by Bernard Lietaer. Bernard Lietaer’s reputation
in the world of money and economics is well-deserved. Retained by both
nations and multi-national corporations to consult on issues of monetary
importance, Lietaer was, in addition, once named the world’s top
currency trader by Business Week.

As such, Lietaer is a respected financial
figure and his criticism of today’s monetary system is not to be taken
lightly. Lietaer’s criticisms, however, are far more fundamental than
those of either Warburton or Austrian economists - Lietaer in The
Future of Money
directly targets the system of money itself and
specifically the US dollar, warning among other things that:

..Unless precautions are taken, there
is at least a 50-50 chance that the next five to ten years will see a
dollar crisis that would amount to a global meltdown. - The Future of
Money
, Bernard Lietaer, Century/Random House 2001

Although written in English and published
by Random House, the world's largest English language trade publisher,
Lietaer’s book was never sold in the US: and, like Warburton’s book,
monetarily significant with a sold-out first printing, a second printing
was never forthcoming.

Perhaps coincidentally - or perhaps not - a
book with the same title, The Future of Money, written by
another author, Benjamin J. Cohen, was later published by Princeton
University Press with instead a strongly positive message about the US
dollar.

Today, a hardcover copy of Lietaer’s The
Future of Money
is available from resellers on amazon.com for
$249.95 and softcovers for $180.91, a testimony to the still current
popularity and demand for his book.

Peter Warburton’s Debt & Delusion
also commanded prices in the $100 and $200 range for aftermarket
copies; and, although the demand was evident for both books, for other,
less evident, reasons, they were never reprinted by their original
publishers.

In the East, Mao Tse-Tung had concluded
that power comes out of the barrel of a gun. But, in the West, for 250
years power has come from the bankers’ issuance of debt-based paper
money and the franchise for that power is not going to be easily
relinquished - or its shortcomings and vulnerabilities readily allowed
to be revealed.

THE ARMAGEDDON SIGNAL

At the Gold Standard Institute session in
Hungary in March, Sandeep Jaitly explained the origins and intricacies
of the calculating the basis and co-basis, the two elements he uses in
anticipating movements in the price of gold.

It was Peter Warburton who had first
directed Sandeep Jaitly to the writings of Professor Fekete and it was
Professor Fekete who encouraged Mr. Jaitly to study the basis. Both the
professor and Mr. Jaitly share a deep respect for the theories of Carl
Menger, the Austrian economist; and, at the conference, Professor Fekete
announced a curriculum where the ideas of Austrian economists such as
Menger will be taught, (see YouTube http://www.youtube.com/user/SchoonWorks#p/a/u/1/kqv-aegOjkY).

Mr. Jaitly believes there is no better
signal than the basis for anticipating the eventual flight out of paper
assets into gold - an event he believes will be predicted by the basis,
i.e. the Armageddon signal, a sign that the tipping point has
been reached. My interview with Mr. Jaitly on this subject can be viewed
at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFTPHqQzDg8

MONEY, POWER, ELITES & THE EURO

The euro is an attempt by European elites
to imitate the 250 year-old Anglo-American franchise of global power
derived from the ability to issue debt-based money from a central bank
and parlay this into increased economic and political power. The intent
was to return Europe to a position of power more equal to that of the
US.

By the end of the 20th century, it was
clear that the US dollar was increasingly vulnerable. Since 1971, the US
dollar could no longer be converted to gold, giving Europe the
opportunity to issue its own currency, the euro. But from its inception,
the euro contained flaws which were ignored by the European elites in
their determination to achieve their political ends.

In Debt & Delusion (in 1999),
Peter Warburton questioned the efficacy of the eurozone’s goals:

…The determination of a political
elite to bring the single European currency into being has swept aside
all forms of opposition…However, the gravity of the commitment that
these politicians have made on behalf of their electorates will take
time to become fully apparent.

…They have been led to believe that
their economic lives will become more straightforward and that a single
currency will enhance the economic standing of Europe on the world
stage…On the contrary, the political independence of the constituent
countries is at stake in this bold venture…The ability and the desire
of the EMU countries to abide by new fiscal rules must be seen in the
light of past budgetary lapses and heavy net interest burdens.
[bold,
mine] - pp. 230, 233

The elites of the EMU
countries, however, did want to hear about possible problems. Elites
have agendas and arguments opposing those agendas are rarely given
serious consideration.

While the European elites were correct
that the Anglo-American empire was vulnerable; they were wrong in
believing the euro would provide a meaningful alternative as the euro,
like the dollar, would not be backed by gold.

It is now clear that US opposition to a
gold-backed euro would have prevented its implementation. In The
Future of Money
, Lietaer refers to US opposition to any new global
reserve currency. This is because the US dollar is the foundation of US
power just as the British pound was the basis of the British empire.

The foundation of the Anglo-American
franchise of global power was debt-based paper money backed by gold.
But, in the 1930s, England could no longer maintain its gold backing;
and the US was unable to do so after 1971, a process I describe in The
Traveler’s Tale
(2005), a story of how America lost its wealth in
its pursuit of empire, a pursuit that would cost it far more than it
would ever gain, see http://www.drschoon.com/articles%5CTheTravelersTaleCanteburyTales
Redux.pdf

THE WEST’S WAR ON GOLD

After 1971 when gold was no longer
anchored the currencies of the West, Western central banks embarked on a
campaign to defend their now fiat paper currencies against any rise in
the price of gold, oil and other commodities that would expose the
declining value of their paper currencies.

Thus began the West’s war on gold, a war
directed by the West’s central banks. In an article written in 2001,
Peter Warburton expertly deconstructs and details what to most is still
opaque, the reason why the gold market is manipulated by Western ruling
elites.

Warburton’s article exposes why the US
Commodity Futures Trading Commission last month chose to ignore charges
that gold and silver markets are manipulated. The central banks (and the
CFTC) are well aware of the manipulation; the reason being that central
banks are responsible for the manipulation and Warburton explains why:

What we see at present is a battle
between the central banks and the collapse of the financial system
fought on two fronts. On one front, the central banks preside over the
creation of additional liquidity for the financial system in order to
hold back the tide of debt defaults that would otherwise occur. On the
other, they incite investment banks and other willing parties to bet
against a rise in the prices of gold, oil, base metals, soft commodities
or anything else that might be deemed an indicator of inherent value.
Their objective is to deprive the independent observer of any reliable
benchmark against which to measure the eroding value, not only of the US
dollar, but of all fiat currencies. Equally, their actions seek to deny
the investor the opportunity to hedge against the fragility of the
financial system by switching into a freely traded market for
non-financial assets.

It is important to recognize that the
central banks have found the battle on the second front much easier to
fight than the first. Last November, I estimated the size of the gross
stock of global debt instruments at $90 trillion for mid-2000. How much
capital would it take to control the combined gold, oil and commodity
markets? Probably, no more than $200bn, using derivatives. Moreover, it
is not necessary for the central banks to fight the battle themselves,
although central bank gold sales and gold leasing have certainly
contributed to the cause. Most of the world’s large investment banks
have over-traded their capital so flagrantly that if the central banks
were to lose the fight on the first front, then their stock would be
worthless. Because their fate is intertwined with that of the central
banks, investment banks are willing participants in the battle against
rising gold, oil and commodity prices.

Central banks, and particularly the
US Federal Reserve, are deploying their heavy artillery in the battle
against a systemic collapse. This has been their primary concern for at
least seven years. Their immediate objectives are to prevent the private
sector bond market from closing its doors to new or refinancing
borrowers and to forestall a technical break in the Dow Jones
Industrials. Keeping the bond markets open is absolutely vital at a time
when corporate profitability is on the ropes. Keeping the equity index
on an even keel is essential to protect the wealth of the household
sector and to maintain the expectation of future gains. For as long as
these objectives can be achieved, the value of the US dollar can also be
stabilized in relation to other currencies, despite the extraordinary
imbalances in external trade.

http://www.gata.org/node/8303

WHY GOVERNMENTS HELP
BANKS INSTEAD OF PEOPLE

When the global economy collapsed in 2008,
governments rescued the banks, the very ones responsible for the
collapse. This is because without the banks’ debt-based paper money,
governments could not spend the vast amounts they do not really have.

Politicians seek power and bankers seek
profit and their collusion is responsible for the present crisis. Do not
be surprised at the current state of affairs, the motives of the
participants are clear and so are the consequences.

These are exceptional times and while we
are helpless to prevent what is about to happen, so, too, are bankers
and politicians. They have brought this state of affairs upon themselves
and for this we should be grateful - for without their demise we would
be enslaved forever.

Peter Warburton’s Debt & Delusion
is now available at amazon.com reissued by WorldMetaview Press. The
price is $75. The truth is priceless.

Buy gold, buy silver, have faith.

Re: Crisis really OVER??? "The Clock of Life"

 

         The clock of life is wound but once,

         And no man has the power

         To tell just where the hands will stop --

          At late or early hour.

 

          To lose one's wealth is sad indeed,

           To lose one's health is more,

            To lose one's soul is such a loss

              As no man can restore.

 

          The present only is our own:

           Live, love, toil with a will.

            Place no faith in tomorrow,

             For the clock may then be still!

Re: Crisis really OVER??? Most profitable & most corrupt - G.S


Goldman Sachs Suit May Bolster Push to Overhaul Rules (Update1)

By Alison Vekshin

April 16 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Securities and Exchange
Commission lawsuit accusing Goldman
Sachs Group Inc.
of fraud
tied to collateralized debt obligations may bolster Democratic
lawmakers’ efforts to pass new rules for the financial industry.

The SEC’s civil claims against the most profitable firm in
Wall Street history come a week before the Senate is scheduled
to debate overhaul legislation and the same day President Barack
Obama
met with advisers to discuss strengthening oversight of
the over-the-counter derivatives market. Obama said today he
would veto any bill that doesn’t include new derivatives rules.

“We must pass Wall Street reform to bring practices like
these into the light of day and protect our economy,” Senate
Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd,
the Connecticut
Democrat who wrote the bill, said in a statement.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a
Nevada Democrat, said
the Goldman Sachs case reinforces the need to “pass strong Wall
Street reform this year,” and urged Republicans to “stop
obstructing our efforts to hold Wall Street accountable.”

The Obama administration has been seeking Republican
support for Dodd’s bill, which is based on the president’s plan
for overhauling rules after a financial crisis that led to the
collapse of Lehman
Brothers Holdings Inc.
and Bear Stearns Cos.
and $700 billion in U.S. aid for banks including Citigroup
Inc.

and Bank of America Corp. The measure sets up a mechanism for
unwinding systemically important financial firms when they fail,
creates a consumer protection bureau at the Federal Reserve and
bolsters oversight of derivatives and hedge funds.

Derivatives Oversight

The SEC lawsuit didn’t bridge the partisan divide on the
overhaul bill. All 41 Senate Republicans signed a letter telling
Reid they oppose Dodd’s plan. Democrats, who need at least 60
votes to overcome opposition in the 100-member Senate, need at
least one vote from a Republican to start debate.

“We are united in our opposition to the partisan
legislation reported by the Senate Banking Committee,” the
Republicans said in the letter. Dodd’s bill would permit
“endless taxpayer bailouts of Wall Street and establishes new
and unlimited regulatory powers that will stifle small
businesses and community banks,” the letter said.

House Minority Leader John Boehner,
an Ohio Republican,
said the SEC suit provided further reason to oppose the measure.

‘Wall Street Bailout’

“These are very serious charges against a key supporter of
President Obama’s bill to create a permanent Wall Street bailout
fund,” Boehner said in a statement after the SEC lawsuit was
announced. The bill “gives Goldman Sachs and other big Wall
Street banks a perpetual, taxpayer-funded safety net by
designating them ‘too big to fail.’”

The measure gives the federal government authority to
“grant an unlimited number of loan guarantees to systemically
risky institutions,” Lawrence B.
Lindsey
, a former director of
the National Economic Council under former President George W.
Bush
, wrote today in a letter to congressional Republicans.

Democrats have rejected the description of the rules
overhaul as a “bailout bill.” The House version approved in
December “will ensure that taxpayers are protected from
bailouts and that investors have information they need to make
good decisions,” Steve Adamske,
a spokesman for House Financial
Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank,
said today in an e-
mail statement.

Veto Threat

Much of the partisan dispute this week centered on a plan
to regulate the $605 trillion over-the-counter derivatives
market, which Obama described as an “enormously risky” part of
the economy. Obama said today that he “will veto legislation
that does not bring the derivatives market under control in some
sort of regulatory framework that assures we don’t have the same
kind of crisis that we’ve seen in the past.”

Senator Blanche Lincoln,
an Arkansas Democrat, released a
bill today that would give regulators power to require mandatory
trading and clearing of standardized derivatives, which she said
would add transparency and oversight to the market.

Gary Gensler,
chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading
Commission, said in a statement that Lincoln’s “strong bill”
would “comprehensively regulate” the derivatives market.
Lincoln’s proposal would give the SEC new authority to oversee
the derivatives market.

The SEC suit alleges that Goldman Sachs misstated and
omitted facts about a financial product tied to subprime
mortgages as the U.S. housing market started to falter. Shares
of New York-based Goldman Sachs dropped
$23.57, or 13 percent,
to $160.70 at 4:15 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange trading.

Well-Timed

The SEC announcement “was a well-timed, and perhaps not
coincidental, effort to sway some on-the-fence Republicans to
support a tougher financials bill that the White House has been
lobbying for,” Roger Freeman,
an analyst at Barclays Capital in
New York, wrote in a note to clients. “Targeting Goldman Sachs,
given the flurry of anti-Wall Street press that has centered
around that firm, offers the publicity that the administration
needs at this critical juncture.”

SEC spokesman John Nester said the timing of the Goldman
case wasn’t politically motivated or tied to the financial-rules
legislation. Jen Psaki,
deputy White House communications
director, declined to comment on the case.

Brendan Daly, a
spokesman for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a
California Democrat, said the Goldman Sachs case is the product
of “years of Republicans in the Bush administration and
Congress cozying up to Wall Street.”

‘Special Interests’

The Senate vote will show whether “Republicans will either
stand with special interests or with the American people,” Daly
said in an e-mail.

The case may be a catalyst for action in the same way as
the SEC’s suit against WorldCom Inc. for its $3.9 billion
accounting fraud in June 2002, said Lynn Turner, a
former SEC
chief accountant. That case erupted as the legislation that
became the Sarbanes-Oxley Act was languishing in the Senate. The
fraud disclosures and WorldCom’s bankruptcy the next month
spurred President George W. Bush to back the law, which passed
99-0.
“If the public reacts to the Goldman allegations as it did
to those at WorldCom, it will likely be a defining event that
ensures financial reform,” Turner said.