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oilguy9999 commented on ARD.V - Armada Data Corporation
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Time to put this company on your watch list. http://www.natcoresolar.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id...
Dumb and Greedy Me ! Sometimes you should follow your own advice and always maintain a core position. When Natcore announced its ABSOLUTE BLACK breakthrough, I alerted members and waited for action. Instead it trended lower and in my greed, waited to get some on the cheap and the train left the station before I bought a ticket. Because of the low amount of outstanding shares, and I must give high marks to management for avoiding dilution, there also should be some volatile swings both high and low. This indeed has the potential with any luck at all to be a huge winner. Congratulations to members who got on board for the train ride
2011 was a tough year for Natcore on the market.. The inclusion of the black silicon in the ARBox pushed the schedule a bit, then the lab opening in Rochester was delayed because they had to redo some safety work after an inspection, they added more stuff in the lab while it was down, they also took care of protecting their ARBox technology with Microtech to be sure no one (like Chinese) reverse engineered their product and they were delays with the black silicon exclusive licensing patent from NREL. Add to that the total meltdown of Solar sector in 2011, the Kodak bankruptcy drama, the Italy (where they have a JV with MX Solar) macro economy getting hit hard and you have a pretty depressed mood for Natcore to succeed...
I think 2012 will look and feel like I was hoping 2011 would be.. They did a great job with avoiding dilution during this tougher period and I feel they deserve a lot more than a 16M$ mkt cap.. It's hard to put a price tag on potential and no revenue yet but my ball park estimate is somewhere near at least 100M$ mkt cap at the moment for their soon-to-be-commercialized ArBoxes, JVs, patent portfolio, lab and quality of the scientists onboard. Much more if they finally succeed to get a 15M$ funding for their Roll-2-Roll product line...
Thanks domasselin for your comments about NXT, you said most of what I would have posted in response to Frank Tabbert. I have always held a core position in NXT ( because of my faith in the company ), but have traded shares outside that position, recently buying back shares at 45 cents. Now I plan to sit tight, looking forward to more good news and higher prices.
glad to see that you've put NXT on your watch list.. This stock has serious star power and hopefully 2012 will be the year they start to roll out their ARBoxes into production line. Currently they are building the commercial version of their product with 2 major tool makers and are expected to finish their setting in 4-6 weeks.. Since start of march they issued a lot of NR and I expect them to continue being loud about their product. Basically what they'll offer is an greener (no hazardous chemicals), cheaper (1 Arbox running full year in Italy is expected to save 1 Million in electricity) and more efficient (2.5-3.5% cell efficiency increase so a 18% become a 18.5% efficiency) and also get more energy output through the day because black silicon is able to collect more energy (up to 10% any day) from diffuse light (instead of non-black silicon cell that needs to hit directly the PV panel at the right angle to produce the optimal results) than CVD furnace. They are the ONLY and PATENTED alternative to Chemical Vapor Deposit furnace. If they can convince 1 major solar cell manufacturer to adopt this new paradigm, the others will have no choice but to follow..
Right now they have as interested customers:
-LOI with MX Solar in Italy which just one a 1GW contract on the Serbian project OneGiga
-Chinese companies are waiting that Natcore Asia start to sell the ArBoxes
-While they didn't issued a NR about a partnership with Phono Solar, they are showcased as partners on the phono website: http://www.phonosolar.com/technology_innovation.php
- A major Indian company has also shown interest and visited the Rochester lab in february..
They reported they already have 4 pending orders of (1..?) for ARboxes..
I've made estimates in the past about their potential recurring revenues with ARBoxes (with a 15 PE) with what they originally issued as forecast in their 2009 presentation (which was unfortunately removed) if you want to check it out: http://www.flickr.com/photos/66234123@N02/6609613389/in/photostream
It is just estimates and speculation but it can give an order of magnitude of what the company might be worth.. For myself I do believe that they can reach high single digit or log double digit within 18 months if their product has the commercial success expected.
Disclosure: I do own a bunch of shares ;)
Hi Lloyd, Stargazer is very knowlegeable about NATCORE and hopefully will add his comments.
Right on Frank, looking good.but it is going to take a while after it get kicked around in the markets.....
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