UCLA Anderson Expert Panel – Financial Outlook for 20182 min read


Inflation expectations, stock market performance predictions for 2018 are outlined by UCLA Anderson’s year-end panel. In an open panel discussion at the UCLA Anderson School of Management is the graduate business school at the University of California, Los Angeles, academics battle money managers.

Harlan Spinner talks Earnings on the S&P

Christopher Harvey, the Head of Equity Strategy at Wells Fargo Securities and Harlan Spinner, the Senior Vice President of UBS Private Wealth Management are two of the speakers.

Harlan Spinner explains,

“I really think that it’s rational where we have gotten to; and, I think the market has moved in a measured response to tremendous growth in earnings. And the market is not focused on Washington. What Washington says and does is at the margin.”

Furthermore,

“The first quarter of 2017, S&P 500 earnings were up 14% year over year, the second quarter was 10% year over year, the third quarter was 5%, but probably would have been 7-8%…”

And,

“We got here because of earnings growth. And, I think moving forward when you look at PE ratios, they are high historically, UBS expects S&P to earn about $131 a share this year.”

Ivo Welch, Professor of Finance at UCLA Anderson had a pragmatic response to Spinner, stating,

“I’m going to state the obvious. It’s incredibly hard to forecast the stock market.”

And that,

“The one thing I advise to friends of mine is, be aware that we had a 2008 that almost everyone seems to have forgotten. If the stock market drops by a third or by a half, can you still live the same way?”

Furthermore,

“I want to be very aware that if the stock market goes down I will still live, I will still come here, my house will still be here.”

UCLA Anderson Panel Outlines Numerous Dynamics Impacting the Economy and Global Markets

Finally, the panel goes back and forth over what how the markets will perform over the long term.