U.S. Housing Barometer - by Bob Weir

A lot of attention has been given to the woes of the U.S. housing market, and the rationale that a real economic recovery cannot be accomplished in the United States until housing starts and prices bottom out. Despite the May uptick in housing starts in the U.S., most likely for seasonal reasons, i.e., not many foundations are dug in the winter months in the northern part of the country so there is usually a spring splurge, there is still the debilitating continuation of adjustable rate mortgage resets waiting ahead. The number of resets spikes again this summer, but then falls off before going on to a sharper pick-up throughout 2010, culminating in all-time high levels in 2011 before disengaging in 2012.

Thus, unless mortgage contracts are modified or re-written en masse, or unless there is a sudden and sharp increase in house prices, there is still a lot of pain ahead. Without a stronger housing market there is unlikely to be a